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Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle

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  • Döpke, Jörg
  • Pierdzioch, Christian

Abstract

This paper elaborates on the relative importance of sectoral shocks for real economic activity in Germany. Implications of multisectoral real business cycle models are examined by resorting to testing techniques based on stock market returns. The empirical evidence is obtained by calculating cross-correlation coefficients of sectoral stock market returns with industrial production, by estimating a limited dependent variable model, and by setting up a trivariate structural vectorautoregression model including a stock market dispersion measure. The results suggest that the influence of sectoral shocks on the dynamics of real output is rather small.

Suggested Citation

  • Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle," Kiel Working Papers 966, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:966
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    Cited by:

    1. Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-88.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real business cycles; sectoral shocks; stock market dispersion; probit model; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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