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Inflationäre Schocks in Deutschland: Eine Common Trends Analyse / Inflationary Shocks in Germany: A Common Trends Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Carstensen Kai

    (Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Düsternbrooker Weg 120, D-24105, Kiel, Germany)

  • Hansen Gerd

    (Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät, Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Olshausenstraße, Germany)

Abstract

This paper analyses the inflation rate in Germany by means of a common trends model. Starting from an IS-LM model of the open economy, we conduct a cointegration analysis from which we obtain plausible long-run relationships. In the next step, we identify structural shocks with permanent and transitory effects and study their impacts on the inflation rate. We find that permanent supply shocks increase long-run inflation while transitory supply shocks temporarily decrease the inflation rate. Negative inflation expectation shocks clearly have a disinflationary effect in the medium and long run

Suggested Citation

  • Carstensen Kai & Hansen Gerd, 2004. "Inflationäre Schocks in Deutschland: Eine Common Trends Analyse / Inflationary Shocks in Germany: A Common Trends Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(3), pages 271-291, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:224:y:2004:i:3:p:271-291
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2004-0301
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