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Striking evidence: The impact of railway strikes on competition from intercity bus services in Germany

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  • Beestermöller, Matthias Gerhard
  • Jessen-Thiesen, Levke
  • Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the largest rail strikes in German history on intercity buses - a then newly liberalised market. Using unique booking data of bus services, we exploit variation in rail service cancellations across routes to show that the disruption in rail transport increases bus ticket sales. Crucially, the effect persists beyond the strike, indicating that travellers do not return to their originally preferred mode of transport. It is particularly pronounced for passengers travelling on weekends. The findings suggest that customers were previously under-experimenting. Beyond transportation, our results highlight the importance of service reliability, as temporary disruptions can cause customers to permanently switch to competitors.

Suggested Citation

  • Beestermöller, Matthias Gerhard & Jessen-Thiesen, Levke & Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai, 2023. "Striking evidence: The impact of railway strikes on competition from intercity bus services in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 2251, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2251
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimentation; inter-modal substitution; learning; optimisation; strike; switching costs; transport;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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