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Does welcoming refugees attract more migrants? The myth of the "Merkel effect"

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  • Tjaden, Jasper Dag
  • Heidland, Tobias

Abstract

In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern at the time was that her decision would signal an open-door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide - thus, increasing migration to Germany in the long-term. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, Merkel's decision in 2015 provides a unique case study for the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, intentions, and interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the 'pull effect' hypothesis while reaffirming states' capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Tjaden, Jasper Dag & Heidland, Tobias, 2021. "Does welcoming refugees attract more migrants? The myth of the "Merkel effect"," Kiel Working Papers 2194, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2194
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/240206/1/1768001278.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Wanner, 2021. "How well can we estimate immigration trends using Google data?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1181-1202, August.
    2. Holland, Alisha C. & Peters, Margaret E., 2020. "Explaining Migration Timing: Political Information and Opportunities," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 560-583, July.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton, 2020. "Asylum Migration to the Developed World: Persecution, Incentives, and Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 75-93, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giesselmann, Marco & Brady, David & Naujoks, Tabea, 2021. "The social consequences of the increase in refugees to Germany 2015-2016," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship Inequality and Social Policy SP I 2021-502, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; migration policy; asylum and refugee policy; policy signaling; pull effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

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