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Erholung der Weltwirtschaft verliert an Schwung

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die kräftige Expansion der Weltwirtschaft setzte sich nach der Jahreswende fort und hielt auch im zweiten Quartal 2010 an. Die Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur haben sich zuletzt zwar eingetrübt. In den Schwellenländern dürfte die Abschwächung jedoch moderat ausfallen und die Wirtschaft auch im Prognosezeitraum kräftig expandieren. Die gegenwärtige Verringerung des konjunkturellen Tempos in den Industrieländern interpretieren wir eher als Resultat des Auslaufens temporärer Impulse, die der Erholung bislang eine überraschend hohe Dynamik verliehen haben, denn als Rückfall in eine rezessive Grundtendenz. Im Ergebnis erwarten wir, dass sich das Tempo der weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion im weiteren Verlauf dieses Jahres und im kommenden Jahr zwar verlangsamt, die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion aber deutlich aufwärtsgerichtet bleibt. Unsere Prognose für den Anstieg der Weltproduktion in diesem Jahr revidieren wir nochmals leicht nach oben. Mit einer Rate von voraussichtlich 4,7 Prozent legt sie wieder annähernd so stark zu wie in den Jahren vor der Finanzkrise. Für 2011 erwarten wir unverändert einen moderateren Anstieg des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um nur noch 3,6 Prozent.

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltwirtschaft verliert an Schwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45574, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:45574
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    1. Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutschland: Nach dem Zwischenspurt langsamere Gangart der Konjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45580, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 483/484, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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