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Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different

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  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

The recovery of the world economy is evolving with a considerable degree of heterogeneity across countries. While the recovery in emerging countries, in particular in Eastern Asia, was very pronounced, it was disappointingly slow in most advanced economies. For example, the upturn was quite strong only during the winter 2009/2010 in the United States and in Japan, and it has lost momentum since then. In other countries that had been hit by a banking crisis and/or a housing crisis, such as the United Kingdom, Spain, or Ireland, the recovery has been sluggish until recently. In this paper, we analyze whether the developments so far are surprising in the light of experience with previous crises. In other words: Is there any indication that 'this time is different'? In particular, we will argue that it is crucial to distinguish between normal recessions and recessions which are associated with a crisis to classify the current recovery in the historical context appropriately.

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  • Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Kiel Policy Brief 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:22
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    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Weltkonjunktur zieht allmählich an," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Schwander, Hanna, 2015. "Labor market risks in times of welfare state transformation," TranState Working Papers 192, University of Bremen, Collaborative Research Center 597: Transformations of the State.
    4. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2011. "Ist die Geldpolitik in den USA zu expansiv?," Kiel Policy Brief 26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Steffen Ahrens & Stephen Sacht, 2014. "Estimating a high-frequency New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 607-628, March.
    6. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2011. "Ist die Geldpolitik in den Vereinigten Staaten zu expansiv ausgerichtet?," Kiel Insight 2011.2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn, 2012. "Nationale Geldschöpfung im Euroraum: Mechanismen, Defekte, Therapie," Kiel Discussion Papers 508/509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2011. "Evaluating the federal reserve's policy," Kiel Policy Brief 23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Baumann, Alexendra & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Publikationen von Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten im deutschsprachigen Raum - Eine bibliometrische Analyse [Publications of Economic Research Insitutes in the German Speaking Area - A bibliometric ," MPRA Paper 92240, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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