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Cartel in the Indian cement industry: An attempt to identify it

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  • Bejger, Sylwester

Abstract

This article is devoted to the problem of the detection of overt or tacit collusion equilibrium in the context of the choice of the appropriate econometric method, a choice that is determined by the amount of information that the observer possesses. The author addresses this problem in two steps. First, to provide a theoretical background, he uses a collusion marker based on structural disturbances in a price process'; variance. Then, he applies a Markov switching model with switching in variance regimes. The author considers this method adequate and coherent with the problem structure and the research objective, and useful for assessing the functionality of the collusion marker he uses. He uses the model to examine the Indian cement industry in the period 1994-2009 and finds some objective indications of collusion and competition phases. These phases are confirmed by certain historical facts as well as by numerous research articles.

Suggested Citation

  • Bejger, Sylwester, 2012. "Cartel in the Indian cement industry: An attempt to identify it," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan Athey & Kyle Bagwell & Chris Sanchirico, 2004. "Collusion and Price Rigidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(2), pages 317-349.
    2. Connor, John M. & Helmers, Claes Gustav, 2006. "Statistics On Modern Private International Cartels, 1990-2005," Staff Papers 28650, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Davidson, James, 2004. "Forecasting Markov-switching dynamic, conditionally heteroscedastic processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 137-147, June.
    4. Bejger, Sylwester, 2011. "Polish cement industry cartel- preliminary examination of collusion existence," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Froeb, Luke M. & Geweke, John & Taylor, Christopher T., 2006. "A variance screen for collusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 467-486, May.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Sylwester Bejger, 2009. "Econometric Tools for Detection of Collusion Equilibrium in the Industry," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9, pages 27-38.
    8. Sylwester Bejger, 2011. "Polish cement industry cartel - preliminary examination of collusion existence," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 88-107, January.
    9. Sylwester Bejger, 2010. "Collusion and seasonality of market price - A case of fixed market shares," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 2(2), pages 48-59, July.
    10. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2008. "The impact of collusion on price behavior: Empirical results from two recent cases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1290-1307, November.
    11. Bejger, Sylwester, 2010. "Collusion and seasonality of market price - A case of fixed market shares," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 2(2), pages 1-12, July.
    12. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    13. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1990. "Collusive Price Leadership," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 93-111, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurdoglu, Berkay & Yucel, Eray, 2022. "A Cointegration-based cartel screen for detecting collusion," MPRA Paper 113888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Delina Agnosteva & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2017. "Multimarket Linkages, Cartel Discipline and Trade Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 6829, CESifo.
    3. Ghulam, Yaseen, 2017. "Long-run performance of an industry after broader reforms including privatization," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 745-768.
    4. Bejger, Sylwester, 2015. "Screening for collusion: Evidences from the Indian cement industry," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 11(2), pages 1-19.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Explicit and tacit collusion; collusive equilibrium; cartel detection; cement industry; price variance; Markov switching model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics

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