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Zum Szenario eines Austritts des Vereinigten Königreichs aus der EU (Brexit)

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Der Ausgang ist offen - in doppeltem Sinne, denn mit dem Vertrag von Lissabon besteht erstmals die rechtliche Möglichkeit, aus der EU auszutreten, gleichzeitig ist das Ergebnis des Referendums höchst unsicher. So gibt es derzeit fast täglich neue Meinungsumfragen mit wechselnden, aber stets knappen Mehrheiten für das eine oder andere Lager. Einzelne Ereignisse kurz vor der Abstimmung könnten demnach ausschlaggebend werden, beispielsweise gelungene bzw. misslungene Auftritte bei einer Fernsehdebatte, ein möglicher Terroranschlag oder gar das Abschneiden der englischen Nationalmannschaft bei der Fußballeuropameisterschaft. Aktuelle Wettquoten signalisieren nach wie vor eine höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit für den Verbleib in der EU: Während derzeit (Stand 14. Juni 2016) in diesem Fall für ein Pfund Einsatz 1,66 Pfund zurückgezahlt würden (implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit knapp 60 Prozent), beträgt die Wettquote für den Fall des Brexit 2,4 (40 Prozent).Allerdings haben sich die Quoten in den vergangenen Tagen erheblich angenähert.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Zum Szenario eines Austritts des Vereinigten Königreichs aus der EU (Brexit)," Kiel Insight 2016.16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201616
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ademmer, Esther, 2016. "Zu den möglichen Auswirkungen eines "Brexit"," Kiel Insight 2016.3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    3. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
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    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2016 - Weltkonjunktur gewinnt vorerst nur wenig Schwung [World Economy Autumn 2016 - World economic growth to pick up only gradually]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp, 2016. "Zur Revision der Prognose infolge der Brexit-Entscheidung in Großbritannien," Kiel Insight 2016.18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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