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Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2016 - Wieder etwas stärkere Expansion der Weltwirtschaft
[World Economy Summer 2016 - World Economy with somewhat more steam]

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft hat sich im Frühjahr gefangen. Allerdings ist die zugrunde liegende Dynamik weiterhin gering. Für den weiteren Verlauf dieses und des nächsten Jahres ist zwar mit etwas höheren Expansionsraten zu rechnen, ein kräftiger Konjunkturaufschwung ist aber weiterhin nicht in Sicht. Der Anstieg der Weltproduktion - gerechnet auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten - wird mit 3,1 Prozent in diesem Jahr genauso schwach ausfallen wie 2015, für 2017 rechnen wir mit einem Anstieg um 3,5 Prozent. Damit haben wir unsere Prognose vom März nur geringfügig angehoben. Der Aufschwung in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften bleibt mäßig. Es wird mehr und mehr deutlich, dass die Hemmnisse für eine stärkere Expansion struktureller Natur sind und weder durch eine weiter expansive Geldpolitik, noch durch fiskalische Impulse überwunden werden können. Die Anregungen vonseiten des Ölpreises lassen allmählich nach, gleichzeitig haben sich mit wieder etwas höheren Rohstoffpreisen aber die Aussichten für viele Schwellenländer aufgehellt. Auch hier stehen aber vielfach strukturelle Probleme einer raschen Erholung entgegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2016 - Wieder etwas stärkere Expansion der Weltwirtschaft [World Economy Summer 2016 - World Economy with somewhat more steam]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hogrefe, Jens & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Euroraum in der Rezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28683, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Schock, Matthias, 2015. "Predicting Economic Activity via Eurozone Yield Spreads: Impact of Credit Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-542, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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    6. Jens Boysen‐Hogrefe, 2015. "Monetary Aggregates to Improve Early Output Gap Estimates in the Euro Area: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 533-542, November.
    7. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Schwäche in den Schwellenländern bremst Weltkonjunktur [Weakness in emerging markets weighs on global growth]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1291-1301.
    9. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Fernando Avalos & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "When the Walk Is Not Random: Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 121-158, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2016 - Gedehnter Aufschwung in Deutschland [German Economy Autumn 2016 - Stretched economic upswing in Germany]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Herbst 2016 - Euroraum: Erholung weiterhin mit wenig Schwung [Euro Area Autumn 2016 - Recovery continues to show little momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2016 - Expansion hält Kurs [German Economy Summer 2016 - Expansion remains on track]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; China; real M1; Euroraum; Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; Schwellenländer; Japan; Russland; ASEAN;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration

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