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The long-term economic implications of BREXIT for Scotland: an interregional analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gioele Figus

    (Centre for Energy Policy, University of Strathclyde)

  • Katerina Lisenkova

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Peter G McGregor

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Graeme Roy

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • J Kim Swales

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

The analysis of this paper offers a cautionary tale about the economic cost of European disintegration. Scotland offers an interesting twist on that story as somewhere that voted to remain part of the EU but is now negatively affected, even though it is less directly exposed to EU trade than the UK, and even if it were to achieve a softer Brexit such as EEA or even full EU membership (as it has aspirations to do). The analysis includes potentially important lessons for the many nations and regions in which there exists pressures to move away from trade liberalisation and towards protectionism.

Suggested Citation

  • Gioele Figus & Katerina Lisenkova & Peter G McGregor & Graeme Roy & J Kim Swales, 2017. "The long-term economic implications of BREXIT for Scotland: an interregional analysis," Working Papers 1711, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1711
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ebell, Monique, 2016. "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238, pages 31-42, November.
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    3. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-143, August.
    4. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    5. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    7. Jonathan Wadsworth, 2015. "Immigration and the UK Labour Market," CEP Election Analysis Papers 019, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Crawley & Max Munday & Annette Roberts, 2018. "How serious is a devolved data deficit? A Welsh perspective," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 33(8), pages 862-876, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scotland; BREXIT; CGE modelling; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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