European post-consumer steel scrap in 2050: A review of estimates and modeling assumptions

This paper studies the availability of post-consumer steel scrap in Europe until 2050. We introduce the indicator potentially available domestic post-consumer scrap (PADPS) which measures the amount of (steel) scrap from obsolete products available for recycling, prior to trade in scrap. We analyze material flow studies from the academic literature and international organizations to quantify this indicator. The studies suggest a rising trend of post-consumer scrap amounts until a saturation level when the expected yearly steel product obsolescence of the system stabilizes. Between 2010 and 2050, PADPS is expected to rise annually by approximately 1.6% per year. We identify in-use steel stocks, recycling rates, and product lifetimes as the three commonly gauged factors determining PADPS. While recycling rates and product lifetimes range comparatively close in the studies, the estimation of in-use stocks displays much greater variation and introduces an element of uncertainty in estimating the post-consumer scrap amounts that can be expected in the coming decades.