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Trump's first triumph: The US republican primaries 2016 - An analysis of socio-demographic, time-related and regional influences

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  • Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang
  • Gerlich, Steffen
  • Koesters, Jochen

Abstract

On the night of November 8th 2016 Donald Trump won the US presidential election with 306 electoral votes (vs. 232 for Hilary Clinton). Most notably, all of the numerous election forecasts failed to predict Trump's victory. It was preceded by Trump's unforeseen achievement in the primaries. The main question arises "Who exactly voted for him?". In this regard we analyze the primaries of the Republican Party of 2016. Given the total failure of survey-based polls we base our empirical analysis on socio-demographic factors of the electoral constituency at county-level (2764 counties) to predict Trump's actual voting shares. The regression analyses show that a larger proportion of White Americans leads to an increasing share of votes for Trump. But there is no statistically significant impact of the share of Evangelical Protestants. By contrast, we cannot reject the hypothesis that a large proportion of veterans in the population goes hand in hand with Trump's success. The study also outlines that low education, low income and a high unemployment rate have a positive impact on votes cast for Trump. However, the population density has no influence. Thus, beside the aforementioned socio-demographic variables the rural versus urban difference per se has no explanatory power. Yet, these variables together explain only 13 percent of the variance of the vote shares of Trump. The momentum effect that is, the time a primary took place in a county increases this explained variance. But in fact, state specific differences of Trump's votes are by far the most relevant factor. Thus, the regression analyses prove once more the fact that the United States of America are no homogenous country. Beside differences in income, education, employment and population density, cultural or traditional values and other deep-rooted regional disparities matter as well.

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  • Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Gerlich, Steffen & Koesters, Jochen, 2017. "Trump's first triumph: The US republican primaries 2016 - An analysis of socio-demographic, time-related and regional influences," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2017/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fhjbwf:20172
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Watzka, Klaus, 2017. "Die Akkreditierung von Studiengängen in Deutschland: Ein Instrument zur Qualitätssicherung? (Jenaer Erklärung zur Akkreditierung)," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2017/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    2. Herold, Jörg & Polzin, Kerstin, 2011. "Zeitvarianz und Zeitinvarianz - mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    3. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Pfeil, Silko & Kaps, Katharina & Sauer, Thomas, 2011. "Regional dispersion of cooperation activities as success factor of innovation oriented SME," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,4, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    4. Schwartz, Michael & Hornych, Christoph, 2010. "Informal networking: An overview of the literature and an agenda for future research," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2010,1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    5. Kaps, Katharina & Pfeil, Silko & Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang, 2011. "Innovationskooperationen und Wissenstransfer von Unternehmen im Raum Jena," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    6. Katharina Kaps & Silko Pfeil & Thomas Sauer & Matthias-Wolfgang Stoetzer, 2011. "Strategische Ausrichtung und Innovationstätigkeit von KMU im Raum Jena," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(09), pages 40-48, May.
    7. Giese, Stefanie & Otte, Franziska & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Berger, Christian, 2013. "Einflussfaktoren des Studienerfolges im betriebswirtschaftlichen Studium: Eine empirische Untersuchung," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2013/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    8. Bianka Dettmer & Thomas Sauer, 2019. "Implementation of European Cohesion Policy at the sub‐national level: Evidence from beneficiary data in Eastern Germany," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(1), pages 167-189, February.
    9. Stoetzer, Matthias Wolfgang & Blass, Tom & Grimm, Anika & Gwosdz, Robert & Schwarz, Jan, 2015. "Was ist fair? Echte und strategische Fairness in einem sequentiellen Ultimatum- und Diktatorspiel," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2015/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    10. Kaps, Katharina & Pfeil, Silko & Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang, 2011. "Innovationsbedingte Beschäftigungs- und Umsatzeffekte bei Unternehmen im Raum Jena," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,3, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    11. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Osborn, Evan, 2014. "Does gender really matter? An analysis of Jena University scientists collaboration with industry and non-profit-partners," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2014/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
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    2. Watzka, Klaus, 2019. "Plädoyer für eine neue Tarifpolitik: Kritische Situationsanalyse und Diskussion einer alternativen Gestaltungsvariante," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2019/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    3. Aronsson, Thomas & Hetschko, Clemens & Schöb, Ronnie, 2020. "Globalization, Time-Preferences, and Populist Voting," Umeå Economic Studies 978, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    4. Watzka, Klaus, 2018. "Fachkräftemangel in der Pflege: Kritische Situationsbewertung und Skizzierung einer Handlungsalternative," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2018/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    voting; US; primaries 2016; election; Trump; Socio-demographic influences; bandwagon; states;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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