IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fhjbwf/20172.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trump's first triumph: The US republican primaries 2016 - An analysis of socio-demographic, time-related and regional influences

Author

Listed:
  • Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang
  • Gerlich, Steffen
  • Koesters, Jochen

Abstract

On the night of November 8th 2016 Donald Trump won the US presidential election with 306 electoral votes (vs. 232 for Hilary Clinton). Most notably, all of the numerous election forecasts failed to predict Trump's victory. It was preceded by Trump's unforeseen achievement in the primaries. The main question arises "Who exactly voted for him?". In this regard we analyze the primaries of the Republican Party of 2016. Given the total failure of survey-based polls we base our empirical analysis on socio-demographic factors of the electoral constituency at county-level (2764 counties) to predict Trump's actual voting shares. The regression analyses show that a larger proportion of White Americans leads to an increasing share of votes for Trump. But there is no statistically significant impact of the share of Evangelical Protestants. By contrast, we cannot reject the hypothesis that a large proportion of veterans in the population goes hand in hand with Trump's success. The study also outlines that low education, low income and a high unemployment rate have a positive impact on votes cast for Trump. However, the population density has no influence. Thus, beside the aforementioned socio-demographic variables the rural versus urban difference per se has no explanatory power. Yet, these variables together explain only 13 percent of the variance of the vote shares of Trump. The momentum effect that is, the time a primary took place in a county increases this explained variance. But in fact, state specific differences of Trump's votes are by far the most relevant factor. Thus, the regression analyses prove once more the fact that the United States of America are no homogenous country. Beside differences in income, education, employment and population density, cultural or traditional values and other deep-rooted regional disparities matter as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Gerlich, Steffen & Koesters, Jochen, 2017. "Trump's first triumph: The US republican primaries 2016 - An analysis of socio-demographic, time-related and regional influences," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2017/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fhjbwf:20172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/157536/1/884749800.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Watzka, Klaus, 2017. "Die Akkreditierung von Studiengängen in Deutschland: Ein Instrument zur Qualitätssicherung? (Jenaer Erklärung zur Akkreditierung)," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2017/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    2. Herold, Jörg & Polzin, Kerstin, 2011. "Zeitvarianz und Zeitinvarianz - mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    3. Katharina Kaps & Silko Pfeil & Thomas Sauer & Matthias-Wolfgang Stoetzer, 2011. "Strategische Ausrichtung und Innovationstätigkeit von KMU im Raum Jena," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(09), pages 40-48, May.
    4. Giese, Stefanie & Otte, Franziska & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Berger, Christian, 2013. "Einflussfaktoren des Studienerfolges im betriebswirtschaftlichen Studium: Eine empirische Untersuchung," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2013/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    5. Bianka Dettmer & Thomas Sauer, 2019. "Implementation of European Cohesion Policy at the sub‐national level: Evidence from beneficiary data in Eastern Germany," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(1), pages 167-189, February.
    6. Stoetzer, Matthias Wolfgang & Blass, Tom & Grimm, Anika & Gwosdz, Robert & Schwarz, Jan, 2015. "Was ist fair? Echte und strategische Fairness in einem sequentiellen Ultimatum- und Diktatorspiel," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2015/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    7. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Pfeil, Silko & Kaps, Katharina & Sauer, Thomas, 2011. "Regional dispersion of cooperation activities as success factor of innovation oriented SME," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,4, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    8. Kaps, Katharina & Pfeil, Silko & Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang, 2011. "Innovationsbedingte Beschäftigungs- und Umsatzeffekte bei Unternehmen im Raum Jena," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,3, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    9. Schwartz, Michael & Hornych, Christoph, 2010. "Informal networking: An overview of the literature and an agenda for future research," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2010,1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    10. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Osborn, Evan, 2014. "Does gender really matter? An analysis of Jena University scientists collaboration with industry and non-profit-partners," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2014/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    11. Kaps, Katharina & Pfeil, Silko & Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang, 2011. "Innovationskooperationen und Wissenstransfer von Unternehmen im Raum Jena," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Watzka, Klaus, 2018. "Fachkräftemangel in der Pflege: Kritische Situationsbewertung und Skizzierung einer Handlungsalternative," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2018/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    2. Reger-Wagner, Kathrin & Kruschel, Sven, 2020. "Humanoide Roboter: Vom Maschinenwesen über Dialogpartner zum Markenbotschafter," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2020/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    3. Watzka, Klaus, 2019. "Plädoyer für eine neue Tarifpolitik: Kritische Situationsanalyse und Diskussion einer alternativen Gestaltungsvariante," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2019/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    4. Aronsson, Thomas & Hetschko, Clemens & Schöb, Ronnie, 2020. "Globalization, Time-Preferences, and Populist Voting," Umeå Economic Studies 978, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Watzka, Klaus, 2017. "Die Akkreditierung von Studiengängen in Deutschland: Ein Instrument zur Qualitätssicherung? (Jenaer Erklärung zur Akkreditierung)," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2017/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    2. Watzka, Klaus, 2018. "Fachkräftemangel in der Pflege: Kritische Situationsbewertung und Skizzierung einer Handlungsalternative," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2018/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    3. Millner, Ralf & Stoetzer, Matthias Wolfgang & Fritze, Christina & Günther, Stephanie, 2015. "Fair oder Foul? Punktevergabe und Platzierung beim Eurovision Song Contest," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2015/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    4. Bianka Dettmer & Thomas Sauer, 2019. "Implementation of European Cohesion Policy at the sub‐national level: Evidence from beneficiary data in Eastern Germany," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(1), pages 167-189, February.
    5. Watzka, Klaus, 2019. "Plädoyer für eine neue Tarifpolitik: Kritische Situationsanalyse und Diskussion einer alternativen Gestaltungsvariante," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2019/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    6. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Osborn, Evan, 2014. "Does gender really matter? An analysis of Jena University scientists collaboration with industry and non-profit-partners," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2014/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    7. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Beyer, Carolin & Mattheis, Julia & Schultheiß, Saskia, 2014. "Der Einfluss der Studiengebühren auf die Zahl der Studienanfänger an deutschen Hochschulen," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2014/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    8. Herold, Jörg & Ahrens, Bernd, 2011. "Reversibilität und Irreversibilität: Mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,5, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    9. Giese, Stefanie & Otte, Franziska & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Berger, Christian, 2013. "Einflussfaktoren des Studienerfolges im betriebswirtschaftlichen Studium: Eine empirische Untersuchung," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2013/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    10. Reger-Wagner, Kathrin & Kruschel, Sven, 2020. "Humanoide Roboter: Vom Maschinenwesen über Dialogpartner zum Markenbotschafter," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2020/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    11. Kaps, Katharina & Pfeil, Silko & Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang, 2011. "Innovationsbedingte Beschäftigungs- und Umsatzeffekte bei Unternehmen im Raum Jena," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,3, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    12. Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang & Pfeil, Silko & Kaps, Katharina & Sauer, Thomas, 2011. "Regional dispersion of cooperation activities as success factor of innovation oriented SME," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,4, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    13. Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (Ed.), 2012. "Vernetzung, Kooperationen, Metropolregionen - Effekte für die wirtschaftliche Zukunft der Städte. Dokumentationen des "3rd Halle Forum on Urban Economic Growth"," IWH-Sonderhefte 4/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Herold, Jörg & Polzin, Kerstin, 2011. "Zeitvarianz und Zeitinvarianz - mathematische Untersuchungen zum Zeitverhalten des Produktlebenszyklus," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    15. Arnold Brit & Herold Jörg, 2012. "Das Lebenszykluskonzept: Bedeutung und mathematische Modellierung am Beispiel des Städtetourismus," Zeitschrift für Tourismuswissenschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 39-56, May.
    16. Kaps, Katharina & Pfeil, Silko & Sauer, Thomas & Stoetzer, Matthias-Wolfgang, 2011. "Innovationskooperationen und Wissenstransfer von Unternehmen im Raum Jena," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2011,2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    17. Ramona Pîrvu & Cristian Drăgan & Gheorghe Axinte & Sorin Dinulescu & Mihaela Lupăncescu & Andra Găină, 2019. "The Impact of the Implementation of Cohesion Policy on the Sustainable Development of EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Cem Karayalcin & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2015. "Trade and Cities," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 523-549.
    19. Herold, Jörg & Völker, Lutz, 2010. "Zufall und Notwendigkeit: Untersuchungen zur mathematischen Modellierung des Produktlebenszyklus," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2010,2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    20. Lutz Sommer, 2019. "The Influence of International Experience on Bargaining Behavior," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 1-30, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    voting; US; primaries 2016; election; Trump; Socio-demographic influences; bandwagon; states;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fhjbwf:20172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fbfjede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.