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Tendenzen auf dem Weltgetreidemarkt: anhaltender Boom oder kurzfristige Spekulationsblase?

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  • Brümmer, Bernhard
  • Koester, Ulrich
  • Loy, Jens-Peter

Abstract

Die vergangenen anderthalb Jahre haben sich für die Getreideproduzenten weltweit und in der EU zeitweise von ihrer besten Seite präsentiert. Die gezahlten Preise für Weizen haben ein Rekordhoch erreicht, von Mai 2007 bis Februar 2008 haben sie sich um mehr als das 1,7fache erhöht. Bis Juli 2008 sind diese aber um bis zu 50 Prozent unter die Preisspitze gefallen. Landwirte haben bereits auf die gesteigerte Grundrente und den Zufluss an Liquidität mit einer erhöhten Zahlungsbereitschaft bei Landpacht und -kauf reagiert. Diese Reaktion kann aus Sicht der Landwirte nur dann wirtschaftlich sinnvoll sein, wenn die Preise auch zukünftig erheblich über dem Niveau vom Mai 2007 bleiben1. Erinnert man sich an die US-amerikanischen Farmer, die sich durch die hohen Preise Ende der siebziger Jahre zum Kauf von Boden zu hohen Preisen veranlasst sahen und dann in den achtziger Jahren erhebliche Probleme bei der Tilgung ihrer Kredite hatten, dann wird klar, dass die Frage, ob es sich bei den derzeitigen Preisentwicklungen um eine Trendwende oder nur um eine vorübergehende Preishausse handelt, von erheblicher Relevanz ist. Diese Frage soll Gegenstand des Beitrages sein. ...

Suggested Citation

  • Brümmer, Bernhard & Koester, Ulrich & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2008. "Tendenzen auf dem Weltgetreidemarkt: anhaltender Boom oder kurzfristige Spekulationsblase?," DARE Discussion Papers 0807, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:daredp:0807
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    2. Westhoff, Patrick C., 2008. "Farm Commodity Prices: Why the Boom and What Happens Now?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-5.
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    1. von Davier, Zazie & Heyder, Matthias & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2010. "Media Analysis on Volatile Markets’ Dynamics and Adaptive Behavior for the Agri-Food System," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12, October.
    2. Wurriehausen, Nadine & Ihle, Rico & Lakner, Sebastian, 2011. "The Integration of the Conventional and Organic Wheat Market," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115784, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Saldias, Rodrigo & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2012. "Access to credit and the determinants of technical inefficiency among specialized small farmers in Chile," DARE Discussion Papers 1211, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    4. Busse, S. & Brümmer, B., 2010. "Bestimmung der Determinanten der Rapspreisentwicklung in der Hochpreisphase auf Basis von Markovzeitreihenmodellen," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    5. von Davier, Zazie & Heyder, Matthias & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2010. "Food Chain Actors’ Perceptions of and Adaptations to Volatile Markets: Results of a Media Analysis," 2010 International European Forum, February 8-12, 2010, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 100472, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    6. Holst, Carsten, 2010. "How predictable are prices of agricultural commodities? The possibilities and constraints of forecasting wheat prices," IAMO Forum 2010: Institutions in Transition – Challenges for New Modes of Governance 52717, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).

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