IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/43813.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Maurice, Noemie
  • Davis, Junior

Abstract

In recent years, Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs) have faced multiple global food, energy and climate crises, compounded by the recent financial and economic crises, which have increased their vulnerability to excessive price volatility in commodity markets. Moreover, structural vulnerabilities in most CDDCs render their economies more vulnerable to increased commodity market turbulence than developed countries, given their comparatively lower income and high dependence on commodity exports. This paper aims to empirically examine the patterns and underlying causes of excessive price volatility for two major soft commodities of critical importance to many of the poorest CDDCs: coffee and cocoa. It aims to identify interactions, similarities and causalities between coffee and cocoa prices on the one hand and, oil and futures prices on the other hand. Our analysis of coffee and cocoa historical prices shows that, coffee price volatility has uneven or varied impact depending on the nature of the market shock. Oil price spillover effects on coffee and cocoa markets are also assessed using cointegration and error-correction models. Long-run causality is found between oil prices, and coffee and cocoa prices but, only cocoa has an equilibrium relationship with oil in the long-term. Given the results, this study proposes some policy recommendations for managing price risk and addressing regulation in cocoa and coffee exporting countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43813/1/MPRA_paper_43813.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nuno Limão & Arvind Panagariya, 2003. "Why is there an Anti-trade Bias in Trade Policy?," International Trade 0310003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Raymond B Swaray, "undated". "Volatility of primary commodity prices: some evidence from agricultural exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," Discussion Papers 02/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Baffes, John, 2007. "Oil spills on other commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 126-134, September.
    4. Randall Fortenbery, 2004. "Developed speculation and underdeveloped markets--the role of futures trading on export prices in less developed countries," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(4), pages 451-471, December.
    5. Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Holt, Matthew T., 1988. "Garch Time-Series Models: An Application To Retail Livestock Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Staatz, John M. & Kizito, Andrew M. & Weber, Michael T. & Dembele, Niama Nango, 2011. "Evaluating the Impact on Market Performance of Investments in Market Information Systems: Methodological Challenges," Staff Paper Series 108184, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    7. Claire Schaffnit Chatterjee, 2011. "Where are Food Prices Heading?," Working Papers id:3770, eSocialSciences.
    8. Kebede, Yohannes, 1992. "Causality and Efficiency in the Coffee Futures Market," MPRA Paper 646, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1992.
    9. Zilcha, Itzhak & Broll, Udo, 1992. "Optimal hedging by firms with multiple sources of risky revenues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 473-477, August.
    10. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    11. Nardella, Michele, 2007. "Price efficiency and speculative trading in cocoa futures markets," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University, UK 7970, Agricultural Economics Society.
    12. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    13. Oecd, 2006. "Agricultural Market Impacts of Future Growth in the Production of Biofuels," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 1-57.
    14. Jean‐Louis Combes & Patrick Guillaumont, 2002. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-39, March.
    15. C. Peter Timmer, 2009. "Did Speculation Affect World Rice Prices?," Working Papers 09-07, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Saralees Nadarajah & Emmanuel Afuecheta & Stephen Chan, 2015. "GARCH modeling of five popular commodities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1691-1712, June.
    3. Benoit Beila MALAN, 2013. "Volatility and stabilization of the price of coffee and cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(7), pages 333-340.
    4. To Thi Kim Hong, 2015. "Effect of exchange rates and gasoline price on export price of Vietnamese coffee," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 5(2), pages 29-36.
    5. Blake, Daniella & Dawson, Carolina & Loeillet, Denis & Staver, Charles, 2018. "Can Global Climate Change affect Prices in the World Banana Market?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(01), March.
    6. Bruno G. Rüttimann, 2016. "Modelling financial type 2b globalisation and its effects on trade, investments and unemployment," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 176-191.
    7. Tadahiro Nakajima, 2014. "Price Formation of Coffee Beans: New Evidence from the Japanese Market," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 23-30, September.
    8. Tiziano Distefano & Guido Chiarotti & Francesco Laio & Luca Ridolfi, 2018. "Spatial distribution of the international food prices: unexpected randomness and heterogeneity," SEEDS Working Papers 0118, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Czudaj Robert L., 2020. "The role of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-39, June.
    2. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    4. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    5. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 136-146, April.
    6. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    7. Lucotte, Yannick, 2016. "Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodity boom perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 142-147.
    8. Ebenezer, Appiah Collins & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi, 2018. "Food Price Sensitivity To Changes In Petroleum Price And Exchange Rate In Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," 2018 Conference (2nd), August 8-11, Kumasi, Ghana 277791, Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Derek Headey & Sangeetha Malaiyandi & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 217-228, November.
    10. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan & M. Zolin, 2010. "Long-term Cereal Price Changes: How Important is the Speculative Element?," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 17(4), pages 624-637, December.
    12. Troester, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "Fundamentals or financialisation of commodity markets: What determines recent wheat prices?," Working Papers 43, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    13. Liu, Li, 2014. "Cross-correlations between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 293-302.
    14. Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish, 2023. "Risk implications of dependence in the commodities: A copula-based analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    16. Khaled Mokni & Manel Youssef, 2020. "Empirical analysis of the cross‐interdependence between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 635-654, October.
    17. Hochman, Gal & Rajagopal, Deepak & Timilsina, Govinda & Zilberman, David, 2011. "The role of inventory adjustments in quantifying factors causing food price inflation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5744, The World Bank.
    18. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2011. "Markets vs. Malthus: Food Security and the Global Economy," Policy Briefs PB11-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    19. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    20. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and export performance in Egypt: New insights from wavelet decomposition and optimal GARCH model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 201-227, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity price volatility; financialization; error correction modelling; cointegration theory; commodity dependent developing countries; least developed countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.