IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/gewipr/260136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bestimmung der Determinanten der Rapspreisentwicklung in der Hochpreisphase auf Basis von Markovzeitreihenmodellen

Author

Listed:
  • Busse, S.
  • Brümmer, B.

Abstract

Der Einfluss der Entwicklungen auf verschiedenen Agrarmärkten auf den deutschen Rapsmarkt wird im vorliegenden Beitrag anhand von multivariaten Zeitreihenmodellen für die Produktpreise untersucht. Da sich in Hochpreisphasen die Preisanpassungsprozesse möglicherweise im Vergleich zu Phasen niedriger Preise ändern, wird auf ein nichtlineares Vektor-Fehlerkorrektur-Modell (VFKM) zurückgegriffen, das regimeabhängige Anpassungen zulässt. Die Spezifikation des Modells als Markovsprung-VFKM (MS-VFKM) erweist sich hier als vorteilhaft, da es keiner a priori Regimespezifizierung und -abgrenzung bedarf. Die Analyse zeigt, dass in den Jahren 2007/08 signifikante Änderungen in den Anpassungsprozessen der Rapspreise im Verhältnis zu anderen Agrargütern auftraten, wobei sowohl Weizen- als auch Sojapreise einen signifikanten Einfluss ausübten. Als entscheidend für das Ausmaß und die Nachhaltigkeit des Rapspreisanstiegs kann hingegen der Abbau von Abweichungen vom langfristigen Gleichgewicht zwischen Rapsöl- und Rapsschrotpreis determiniert werden.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Busse, S. & Brümmer, B., 2010. "Bestimmung der Determinanten der Rapspreisentwicklung in der Hochpreisphase auf Basis von Markovzeitreihenmodellen," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewipr:260136
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.260136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/260136/files/Bd45Nr22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.260136?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chilla, Bernhard & Balkhausen, Oliver, 2009. "Der Markt für Getreide und Ölfrüchte," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 59.
    2. Bernhard Brümmer & Ulrich Koester & Jens-Peter Loy, 2008. "Weltgetreidemarkt: Anhaltender Boom oder kurzfristige Spekulationsblase?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88(10), pages 654-662, October.
    3. Brümmer, Bernhard & Koester, Ulrich & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2008. "Tendenzen auf dem Weltgetreidemarkt: anhaltender Boom oder kurzfristige Spekulationsblase?," DARE Discussion Papers 0807, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    4. von Witzke, Harald & Noleppa, Steffen & Schwarz, Gerald, 2008. "Global agricultural market trends and their impacts on European Union agriculture," Working Paper Series 6276, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    5. Schumacher, Klaus-Dieter & Chilla, Bernhard, 2009. "Der Markt für Getreide und Ölfrüchte," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 58(01), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis: Threshold Models vs. Markov-Switching Models," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44198, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-28, April.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saldias, Rodrigo & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2012. "Access to credit and the determinants of technical inefficiency among specialized small farmers in Chile," DARE Discussion Papers 1211, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    5. Lillo, Felipe & Valdés, Rodrigo, 2016. "Dynamics of financial markets and transaction costs: A graph-based study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 455-465.
    6. Holst, Carsten, 2010. "How predictable are prices of agricultural commodities? The possibilities and constraints of forecasting wheat prices," IAMO Forum 2010: Institutions in Transition – Challenges for New Modes of Governance 52717, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    7. Mohammad Jahangir Alam & Andrew M. McKenzie & Ismat Ara Begum & Jeroen Buysse & Eric J. Wailes & Md. Abdur Rouf Sarkar & Abdullah Al Mamun & Guido Huylenbroeck, 2022. "Spatial market integration of rice in Bangladesh in the presence of transaction cost," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
    9. Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde, 2016. "Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-123.
    10. Sun, Chuanwang & Zhan, Yanhong & Peng, Yiqi & Cai, Weiyi, 2022. "Crude oil price and exchange rate: Evidence from the period before and after the launch of China's crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    12. Degye Goshu, 2016. "The Dynamics of Food Price Convergence in Ethiopia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 24(1), April.
    13. Sithole, Rumbidzai Praise & Eita, Joel Hinaunye, 2020. "A test of integration between the South African and selected African stock markets," MPRA Paper 101301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Valdes, Rodrigo & Von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Engler, Alejandra, 2015. "Transaction costs and trade liberalization: An empirical perspective from the MERCOSUR agreement," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 109-116.
    15. Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Do future markets protect the spot markets in developing countries? The case of the Egyptian wheat market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(5), pages 65-83.
    16. von Davier, Zazie & Heyder, Matthias & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2010. "Media Analysis on Volatile Markets’ Dynamics and Adaptive Behavior for the Agri-Food System," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12, October.
    17. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
    18. von Davier, Zazie & Heyder, Matthias & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2010. "Food Chain Actors’ Perceptions of and Adaptations to Volatile Markets: Results of a Media Analysis," 2010 International European Forum, February 8-12, 2010, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 100472, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    19. Busse, Stefan & Ihle, Rico, 2009. "German Rapeseed Oil and Biodiesel Pricing under Changing Market Conditions: A Markov-switching Vector Error Correction Model Approach," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51032, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    21. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Pachis, Dimitris N., 2013. "Investigating the Price Transmission Mechanism of the Greek Fresh Tomato Market with a Markov Switching Vector Error Correction model," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gewipr:260136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gewisea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.