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On the persistence of trade imbalances: Evidence from Europe

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  • Berger, Helge
  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

Does exchange rate variability affect the speed of external adjustment? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro. Greater persistence is partially linked to economic and regulatory inflexibilities, such as fiscal restrictions and labor market rigidities.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2013. "On the persistence of trade imbalances: Evidence from Europe," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 217, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:darddp:dar_61306
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2.
    2. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    3. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
    4. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2013. "Bilateral Imbalances in Europe ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 559-575, September.
    5. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    7. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
    8. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "Introduction to "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment"," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    imbalances; trade balance; trade surplus; trade deficit; persistence; euro; EMU; European integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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