IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rnp/wpaper/061824.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Exchange Rates and Their Volatility on Russia's Foreign Trade, Taking into Account its Membership in EAEU
[Влияние Обменных Курсов И Их Волатильности На Внешнюю Торговлю России С Учетом Её Членства В Еаэс]

Author

Listed:
  • Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Chentsov, Alexander (Ченцов, Александр)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract

The paper analyzes literature exploring the influence of exchange rate volatility on trade volume and it is shown that early estimates indicating a significant increase in trade between countries that are in currency unions are erroneous and are caused by a number of reasons related to the endogenous status of monetary unions and the existence trends in regression variables. One of the sections is devoted to a review of the literature on the general problems of the effects of exchange rates on trade; in it an extensive class of models describing consumers' demand for imported goods is considered. This is followed by a review of empirical studies, which, among other things, study the difference in the estimation of equations for cases of "small open economy" and "large open economy". In the practical part of the work, the influence of exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade is estimated using panel data for 214 countries of the world, using the proxy variable of the status of monetary unions.

Suggested Citation

  • Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) & Chentsov, Alexander (Ченцов, Александр), 2018. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Their Volatility on Russia's Foreign Trade, Taking into Account its Membership in EAEU [Влияние Обменных Курсов И Их Волатильности На Внешнюю Торговлю России С Учет," Working Papers 061824, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061824
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/wpaper/061824.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 1996/058, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-Market, Trade Costs, and International Relative Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1998-2031, December.
    4. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    5. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2016. "Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU reassessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 78-91.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Robin, Jean Marc, 1999. "Estimation in Large and Disaggregated Demand Systems: An Estimator for Conditionally Linear Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 209-232, May-June.
    7. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-336, March.
    9. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles & Storgaard, Peter E., 2004. "Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 263-291, July.
    10. Arthur Lewbel, 2001. "Demand Systems with and without Errors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 611-618, June.
    11. Bieri, Jurg & Janvry, Alain de, 1972. "Empirical Analysis of Demand Under Consumer Budgeting," Monographs, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation, number 251916, December.
    12. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    13. Gallant, A. Ronald & Souza, Geraldo, 1991. "On the asymptotic normality of Fourier flexible form estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 329-353, December.
    14. Robert C. Feenstra & Andrew K. Rose, "undated". "Putting Things In Order: Patterns Of Trade Dynamics And Growth," Department of Economics 97-14, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    15. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Blundell, Richard, 1988. "Consumer Behaviour: Theory and Empirical Evidence--a Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 16-65, March.
    17. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-383, June.
    18. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    20. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    21. Browning, Martin & Meghir, Costas, 1991. "The Effects of Male and Female Labor Supply on Commodity Demands," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 925-951, July.
    22. Arthur Lewbel & Krishna Pendakur, 2009. "Tricks with Hicks: The EASI Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 827-863, June.
    23. Donald J. Brown & Rosa L. Matzkin, 1998. "Estimation of Nonparametric Functions in Simultaneous Equations Models, with an Application to Consumer Demand," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1175, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    24. Daria Taglioni, 2002. "Exchange Rate Volatility as a Barrier to Trade: New Methodologies and Recent Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 89-90, pages 227-259.
    25. Muellbauer, John, 1976. "Community Preferences and the Representative Consumer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 979-999, September.
    26. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2010. "After the Crisis: Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances?," IMF Working Papers 2010/011, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Pietro Biroli & Gilles Mourre & Alessandro Turrini, 2010. "Adjustment in the Euro Area and Regulation of Product and Labour Markets: An Empirical Assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 428, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    28. Walter Beckert & Richard Blundell, 2004. "Invertibility of Nonparametric Stochastic Demand Functions," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0406, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    29. Barnett, William A. & Jonas, Andrew B., 1983. "The Muntz-Szatz demand system : An application of a globally well behaved series expansion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 337-342.
    30. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2010. "Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: The role of sticky information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 48-60, May.
    31. Jean-Marc Robin, 1999. "[Econometrics of systems of demand] [Econométrie des systèmes de demande]," Post-Print hal-02688894, HAL.
    32. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
    33. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-127, May.
    34. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    35. Howe, Howard & Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1979. "Theory and Time Series Estimation of the Quadratic Expenditure System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1231-1247, September.
    36. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    37. Holger C. Wolf & Atish R. Ghosh & Helge Berger & Anne-Marie Gulde, 2008. "Currency Boards in Retrospect and Prospect," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232650, December.
    38. Hausman, J. A. & Newey, W. K. & Powell, J. L., 1995. "Nonlinear errors in variables Estimation of some Engel curves," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 205-233, January.
    39. Atkinson, A B & Gomulka, J & Stern, N H, 1990. "Spending on Alcohol: Evidence from the Family Expenditure Survey 1970-1983," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 808-827, September.
    40. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2014. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 529-595.
    41. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    42. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    43. A. De Janvry & J. Bieri & A. Nuñez, 1972. "Estimation of Demand Parameters under Consumer Budgeting: An Application to Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(3), pages 422-430.
    44. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1996. "Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Bierens, H.J. & Pott-Buter, H.A., 1987. "Specification of household expenditure functions and equivalence scales by nonparametric regression," Serie Research Memoranda 0044, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    46. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-597, June.
    47. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    48. Holly, Alberto, 1982. "A Remark on Hausman's Specification Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 749-759, May.
    49. Dominitz, Jeff & Sherman, Robert P., 2005. "Some Convergence Theory For Iterative Estimation Procedures With An Application To Semiparametric Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 838-863, August.
    50. S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fatás & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
    51. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    52. Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-730, May.
    53. Brown, Bryan W & Walker, Mary Beth, 1989. "The Random Utility Hypothesis and Inference in Demand Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 815-829, July.
    54. David L. Edgerton, 1997. "Weak Separability and the Estimation of Elasticities in Multistage Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 62-79.
    55. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    56. Douglas L. Campbell, 2013. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1278-1293, October.
    57. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2007. "Expenditure switching versus real exchange rate stabilization: Competing objectives for exchange rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2346-2374, November.
    58. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    59. Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/127, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Dale W. Jorgenson & Lawrence J. Lau, 1975. "The Structure of Consumer Preferences," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 4, number 1, pages 49-101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Deaton, Angus, 1974. "A Reconsideration of the Empirical Implications of Additive Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(334), pages 338-348, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrey V. Zubarev & Maria A. Kirillova, 2023. "Estimation of the Sensitivity of the EAEU Members to External Shocks Using the GVAR Model [Исследование Чувствительности Стран–Членов Еаэс К Внешним Шокам При Помощи Модели Gvar]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 7, pages 8-20, July.
    2. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    3. Andrey V. Zubarev & Maria A. Kirillova, 2023. "Исследование Чувствительности Стран–Членов Еаэс К Внешним Шокам При Помощи Модели Gvar," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 7, pages 8-20, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "Wearing corset, losing shape: The euro's effect on trade imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 136-155.
    2. Mr. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2010. "The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2010/226, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2014. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 529-595.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.
    5. Roberto Rigobon & Brent Neiman & Alberto Cavallo, 2013. "Product Introductions, Currency Unions, and the Real Exchange Rate," 2013 Meeting Papers 1357, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. LaFrance, Jeffrey T., 2008. "The structure of US food demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 336-349, December.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Measuring Consumer Preferences and Estimating Demand Systems," MPRA Paper 12318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Arthur Lewbel & Krishna Pendakur, 2009. "Tricks with Hicks: The EASI Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 827-863, June.
    9. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    10. Song, Ze & Li, Lianyou & Ma, Chao, 2013. "The EASI Demand System : Evidence from China Household," MPRA Paper 48435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jeffrey LaFrance & Rulon Pope, 2008. "The Generalized Quadratic Expenditure System," Working Papers 2008-27, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    12. Mette Lunde Christensen, 2002. "Heterogeneity in consumer demands and the income effect: evidence from panel data," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    13. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Menon, Martina & Pagani, Elisa & Perali, Federico, 2018. "Collective household welfare and intra-household inequality," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), May.
    14. Haag, Berthold R. & Hoderlein, Stefan & Pendakur, Krishna, 2009. "Testing and imposing Slutsky symmetry in nonparametric demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 33-50, November.
    15. Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan & Haiyan Liu & Long Vo, 2022. "The Icp, Ppp And Household Expenditure Patterns," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 22-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    16. Laura Blow & Valérie Lechene & Peter Levell, 2014. "Using the CE to Model Household Demand," NBER Chapters, in: Improving the Measurement of Consumer Expenditures, pages 141-178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Richard W. Blundell & Martin Browning & Ian A. Crawford, 2003. "Nonparametric Engel Curves and Revealed Preference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 205-240, January.
    18. Ping Wang & Nhuong Tran & Dolapo Enahoro & Chin Yee Chan & Kelvin Mashisia Shikuku & Karl M. Rich & Kendra Byrd & Shakuntala H. Thilsted, 2022. "Spatial and temporal patterns of consumption of animal‐source foods in Tanzania," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 328-348, April.
    19. Giorgio Fagiolo, 2001. "Engel Curves Specification in an Artificial Model of Consumption Dynamics with Socially Evolving Preferences," LEM Papers Series 2001/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Tomoki Fujii, 2014. "Is urban food demand in the Philippines different from China?," Working Papers 18-2014, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurasion Economic Union; Integration policy; tariff and non-tariff barriers; volatility of exchange courses; international trade;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061824. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RANEPA maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aneeeru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.