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Where Did All the Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position

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  • Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
  • Mr. Philip R. Lane

Abstract

The deterioration in the U.S. net external position in recent years has been much smaller than the extensive net borrowing associated with large current account deficits would have suggested. This paper examines the sources of discrepancies between net borrowing and accumulation of net liabilities for the U.S. economy over the past 25 years. In particular, it highlights and quantifies the role played by net capital gains on the U.S. external portfolio and 'residual adjustments' in explaining this discrepancy. It discusses whether these 'residual adjustments' are likely to be originating from measurement errors in external assets and liabilities, financial flows, or capital gains, and explores the implications of these conjectures for the U.S. financial account and external position.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "Where Did All the Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position," IMF Working Papers 2008/028, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/028
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; market value; exchange rate; net capital; rate of return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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