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Time-intensive R&D and unbalanced trade

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  • Philip U. Sauré

Abstract

This paper highlights a novel mechanism that generates global imbalances. It develops a general equilibrium trade model with one of two countries having a comparative advantage in a sector whose production is characterized by (i) rapid, anticipated demand growth and (ii) large up-front R&D costs. International funding of the accruing R&D costs generates capital inflows in the R&D stage, which are balanced by subsequent outflows. Importantly, sector-level growth does not generate growth differentials between countries, typically regarded as rationales of global imbalances. Additionally, it is shown that a trade surplus can coincide with appreciations of the real exchange rate. I argue that Switzerland's trades surplus, which was driven to record heights during 2010-2014 by pharmaceutical exports, exemplifies this mechanism. Calibrating the model to Swisstrade flows underpins this argument.

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  • Philip U. Sauré, 2015. "Time-intensive R&D and unbalanced trade," Working Papers 2015-11, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2015-11
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    1. Herkenhoff, Philipp & Sauré, Philip, 2021. "How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
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    3. Philip Sauré, 2015. "The Resilient Trade Surplus, the Pharmaceutical Sector, and Exchange Rate Assessments in Switzerland," Working Paper Series WP15-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unbalanced trade; setup costs; R&D costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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