IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cegedp/130.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Der Euro als Triebfeder des deutschen Exports?

Author

Listed:
  • Zeddies, Götz

Abstract

Die ausufernde Verschuldung insbesondere der südeuropäischen Mitgliedstaaten stellt die Europäische Währungsunion (EWU) derzeit vor große Herausforderungen. Während über lange Zeit Einigkeit darüber herrschte, den vollständigen Erhalt der Währungsunion mit einem milliardenschweren Rettungsschirm zu sichern, wurden jüngst erste Forderungen nach einem Austritt Griechenlands aus dem Euroraum laut. Insbesondere in Deutschland wird befürchtet, dass ein Austritt einzelner Länder oder gar ein kompletter Zerfall der Währungsunion mit großen ökonomischen Nachteilen verbunden wäre. So wird argumentiert, dass gerade Deutschland aufgrund seiner hohen Exportorientierung und jahrelanger Lohnzurückhaltung mehr als alle anderen EWU-Mitgliedsländer vom Euro profitiere. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht der vorliegende Beitrag, welche Konsequenzen ein Austritt einzelner Länder aus der Währungsunion und damit verbundene Veränderungen der preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auf die deutschen Ausfuhren in diese Länder hätte. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass sich ein Austritt Irlands, Griechenlands, Spaniens und Portugals kaum negativ auf die deutschen Exporte auswirken würde. Ein kompletter Zerfall der Währungsunion und eine Wiedereinführung nationaler Währungen dürfte dagegen, aufgrund der nach wie vor recht hohen Bedeutung des Euroraums als Absatzmarkt für deutsche Produkte, den Exportzuwachs spürbar dämpfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeddies, Götz, 2011. "Der Euro als Triebfeder des deutschen Exports?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 130, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70205/1/672190281.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ohr, Renate & Zeddies, Götz, 2010. ""Geschäftsmodell Deutschland" und außenwirtschaftliche Ungleichgewichte in der EU," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 110, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    5. Kerstin Stahn, 2006. "Has the Impact of Key Determinants of German Exports Changed?," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 361-384, Springer.
    6. Hogrefe, Jan & Jung, Benjamin & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2010. "Readdressing the trade effect of the Euro: Allowing for currency misalignment," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-023, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Heiner Flassbeck & Friederike Spiecker, 2010. "Lohnpolitische Konvergenz und Solidarität oder offener Bruch," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 90(3), pages 178-184, March.
    8. Arbeitskreis Konjunktur des IWH & Kiel Economics, 2011. "Konjunktur aktuell: Schulden- und Vertrauenskrise bringt Rezessionsgefahr nach Deutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 17(9), pages 298-328.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anke Mönnig, 2012. "Balancing the European Monetary Union - an Impact Analysis on the Return of National Currencies," GWS Discussion Paper Series 12-8, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    2. Anke Mönnig, 2012. "Balancing the European Currency Union - an Impact Analysis on the Return of National Currencies," EcoMod2012 3831, EcoMod.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:got:cegedp:130 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2011. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2011: Aufschwung setzt sich fort - Europäische Schuldenkrise noch ungelöst," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(08), pages 03-63, April.
    3. Stirböck, Claudia, 2006. "How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,39, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Frenkel Michael & Zimmermann Lilli, 2020. "What Drives Germany's Exports?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 56(2), pages 99-108, June.
    5. Stefano Chiarlone, 2000. "Trade of quality differentiated goods and import elasticities," LIUC Papers in Economics 72, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    6. Lücke Dorothea & Schröder Philipp J.Η. & Schumacher Dieter, 2005. "A Note on R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 688-698, December.
    7. Matthieu Crozet & Hélène Erkel‐Rousse, 2004. "Trade Performances, Product Quality Perceptions, and the Estimation of Trade Price Elasticities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 108-129, February.
    8. Dorothea Lucke & Philipp J. H. Schröder & Dieter Schumacher, 2004. "R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 430, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Höpner, Martin & Baccaro, Lucio, 2022. "Das deutsche Wachstumsmodell, 1991-2019," MPIfG Discussion Paper 22/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    10. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, September.
    11. Moschos, D. & Stournaras, Y., 1998. "Domestic and foreign price links in an aggregate supply framework: The case of Greece," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 141-157, June.
    12. Storm, Servaas & Naastepad, C.W.M., 2015. "Crisis and recovery in the German economy: The real lessons," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 11-24.
    13. Stefano Chiarlone, 2000. "Import Demand with Product Differentiation: Disaggregated Estimation of Italian Sectoral Elasticities," KITeS Working Papers 113, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2000.
    14. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:3:p:295-329 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chang, Byoung-Ky, 1999. "Three essays on imperfect competition and exchange rate pass-through in the presence of multiple exchange rates," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000013554, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Sebastian Breuer & Jens Klose, 2015. "Who Gains From Nominal Devaluation? An Empirical Assessment of Euro-area Exports and Imports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(12), pages 1966-1989, December.
    17. Heinze, Henriette, 2018. "The determinants of German exports: An analysis of intra- and extra-EMU trade," IPE Working Papers 95/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    18. Barrell Ray & Willem te Velde Dirk, 2002. "European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 263-294, August.
    19. Dieter Schumacher & Dorothea Lucke & Philipp J. H. Schröder, 2004. "Wechselkursveränderungen und Außenhandelsposition bei forschungsintensiven Waren: Endbericht für 2003 ; Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Bildung und Forschung," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 3, number pbk3.
    20. Hélène Erkel‐Rousse & Daniel Mirza, 2002. "Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 282-306, May.
    21. Robert Kelm, 2016. "Eksport, import i kurs złotego: 2000−2014," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(6), pages 585-620.
    22. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Stephan Danninger & Fred Joutz, 2008. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(4), pages 681-714, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    German exports; European financial crisis; EMU withdrawal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdgoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.