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Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports

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  • Stahn, Kerstin

Abstract

The question as to whether changes in the external environment may have caused the importance of key determinants of German exports to shift since the 1990s is addressed by estimating Germany's exports to EMU partner countries (intra exports) and to countries outside the euro area (extra exports). Analytically, this is done first by estimating single-equation error correction models across different samples. Second, an estimation applying the Saikkonen (1991) approach is carried out to test whether the long-run export behaviour of intra and extra exports has changed since the 1990s. Finally, simulations are conducted by means of error-correction models in order to reconstruct the adjustment process of both intra and extra exports following demand and price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4244
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    2. Jone Kalendiene & Giedrius Miliauskas, 2011. "Lithuanian export competitiveness before economic recession," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 40-51, January.
    3. Kalendiene, Jone & Miliauskas, Giedrius, 2011. "Lithuanian export competitveness before economic recession," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, January.
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2011. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2011: Aufschwung setzt sich fort - Europäische Schuldenkrise noch ungelöst," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(08), pages 03-63, April.
    5. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani & Bobeica, Elena, 2016. "The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1941, European Central Bank.
    6. Stirböck, Claudia, 2006. "How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,39, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Beissinger, Thomas & Hellier, Joël & Marczak, Martyna, 2020. "Divergence in Labour Force Growth: Should Wages and Prices Grow Faster in Germany?," IZA Discussion Papers 13538, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Höpner, Martin & Baccaro, Lucio, 2022. "Das deutsche Wachstumsmodell, 1991-2019," MPIfG Discussion Paper 22/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    9. Frenkel Michael & Zimmermann Lilli, 2020. "What Drives Germany's Exports?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 56(2), pages 99-108, June.
    10. Frenkel Michael & Zimmermann Lilli, 2020. "What Drives Germany's Exports?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 56(2), pages 99-108, June.
    11. Sebastian Breuer & Jens Klose, 2015. "Who Gains From Nominal Devaluation? An Empirical Assessment of Euro-area Exports and Imports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(12), pages 1966-1989, December.
    12. Zeddies, Götz, 2011. "Der Euro als Triebfeder des deutschen Exports?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 130, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, October.
    14. Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Ulrich Haskamp, 2013. "Das ifo Exportklima – ein Frühindikator für die deutsche Exportprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(04), pages 36-43, March.
    15. Stephan Danninger & Fred Joutz, 2008. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(4), pages 681-714, December.
    16. Storm, Servaas & Naastepad, C.W.M., 2015. "Crisis and recovery in the German economy: The real lessons," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 11-24.
    17. Heinze, Henriette, 2018. "The determinants of German exports: An analysis of intra- and extra-EMU trade," IPE Working Papers 95/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    18. Stahn Kerstin, 2007. "Has the Export Pricing Behaviour of German Enterprises Changed?: Empirical Evidence from German Sectoral Export Prices," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(3), pages 295-329, June.
    19. repec:got:cegedp:130 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    intra and extra euro-area exports; export demand; price competitiveness; error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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