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A price-at-risk approach for the German commercial real estate market

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  • Herbst, Tobias
  • Plaasch, Jannick
  • Stammwitz, Florian

Abstract

We apply the growth-at-risk model of Adrian et al. (2019) to the German commercial real estate (CRE) market. We derive a distribution for CRE price growth four quarters ahead conditional on macro-financial variables. This approach allows us to make probability statements about the downside risk to future CRE price growth, which serve as an input to financial stability analyses. We find that the conditional distribution has shifted strongly to the left since the COVID-19 pandemic, in line with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, an increase in long-term interest rates and a decline in the net initial yield, resulting in lower expected CRE price growth rates across the entire distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Herbst, Tobias & Plaasch, Jannick & Stammwitz, Florian, 2024. "A price-at-risk approach for the German commercial real estate market," Technical Papers 08/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubtps:308094
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commercial Real Estate; Quantile Regression; Growth-at-Risk; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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