IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2023q2a5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Structural Determinants of Growth-at-Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Gächter

    (Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority, University of Innsbruck)

  • Martin Geiger

    (Liechtenstein Institute, University of Innsbruck)

  • Elias Hasler

    (Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority, University of Innsbruck)

Abstract

We examine structural differences in growth vulnerabilities across countries associated with financial risk indicators. Considering trade openness, financial sector size, the public spending ratio, and government effectiveness, our findings suggest the existence of a structural gap and a risk sensitivity gap. Hence, structural country characteristics not only drive level differences in growth-at-risk (GaR) but also give rise to differences in the responsiveness of GaR to financial risks. Furthermore, we show that the impact of structural characteristics varies over the forecasting horizon. A proper understanding of structural country characteristics in the context of the GaR framework is important to facilitate the use of the concept in macroprudential policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Gächter & Martin Geiger & Elias Hasler, 2023. "On the Structural Determinants of Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 251-293, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:2:a:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q2a5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q2a5.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
    2. Tobias Adrian & Dong He & Nellie Liang & Fabio M Natalucci, 2019. "A Monitoring Framework for Global Financial Stability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 19/06, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Breitenlechner, Max & Gächter, Martin & Sindermann, Friedrich, 2015. "The finance–growth nexus in crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 31-33.
    4. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
    5. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2010. "Corruption, growth, and growth volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 501-514, June.
    6. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    7. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
    8. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    9. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas & George Tavlas, 2017. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Volatility," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 797-819, October.
    10. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the (de)stabilising role of government size," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 781-790.
    11. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
    12. Brownlees, Christian & Souza, André B.M., 2021. "Backtesting global Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 312-330.
    13. Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2020. "Managing GDP Tail Risk," Staff Working Papers 20-3, Bank of Canada.
    14. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    15. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Mr. Dong He & Nellie Liang & Mr. Fabio M Natalucci, 2019. "A Monitoring Framework for Global Financial Stability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2019/006, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
    17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    18. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Narapong Srivisal, 2013. "Revisiting the Link Between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2013/029, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    2. Emter, Lorenz & Setzer, Ralph & Zorell, Nico & Moura, Afonso S., 2024. "Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality," Working Paper Series 2989, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    4. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Burcu Berke, 2023. "Revisiting the effects of government size and labour market institutions on macroeconomic volatility: the case of the eurozone," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 91-96.
    5. Huang, Ho-Chuan (River) & Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Does financial development volatility affect industrial growth volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 307-320.
    6. Irene Brunetti & Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena, 2013. "An Index of Growth Rate Volatility: Methodology and an Application to European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/169, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Zouaoui, Haykel & Mazioud, Manel & Ellouz, Nidhal Ziedi, 2018. "A semi-parametric panel data analysis on financial development-economic volatility nexus in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 50-55.
    8. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2015. "Government Size and Business Cycle Volatility: How Important are Credit Constraints?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(326), pages 201-221, April.
    9. Milan Szabo, 2020. "Growth-at-Risk: Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2020/3, Czech National Bank.
    10. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "Macroprudential capital regulation and fiscal balances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Jarrett, Uchechukwu & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Mohtadi, Hamid, 2019. "Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 131-144.
    12. Sana Hussain, 2020. "Good volatility vs. bad volatility: The asymmetric impact of financial depth on macroeconomic volatility," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(3), pages 405-438, June.
    13. Xue, Wen-Jun, 2020. "Financial sector development and growth volatility: An international study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 67-88.
    14. Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl & David Pichler, 2022. "Public and private pension systems and macroeconomic volatility in OECD countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 131-168, May.
    15. Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    16. Avom, Désiré & Kamguia, Brice & Ngameni, Joseph Pasky & Njangang, Henri, 2021. "How does terms of trade volatility affect macroeconomic volatility? The roles of financial development and institutions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 98-114.
    17. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    18. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2019. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 849-867, August.
    19. M. Tariq Majeed & Ayesha Noreen, 2018. "Financial Development and Output Volatility: A Cross-Sectional Panel Data Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 97-141, Jan-June.
    20. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2020. "Does Financial Development Moderate the Effects on Growth Volatility? The Experience of Malaysia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(4), pages 361-381, November.
    21. Tony Cavoli & Sasidaran Gopalan & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2020. "Does Financial Inclusion Amplify Output Volatility in Emerging and Developing Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 901-930, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:2:a:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.