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Volatility and Quantile Forecasts by Realized Stochastic Volatility Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution

Author

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  • Makoto Takahashi

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Toshiaki Watanabe

    (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University)

  • Yasuhiro Omori

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

The predictive performance of the realized stochastic volatility model of Takahashi,　Omori, and Watanabe (2009), which incorporates the asymmetric stochastic volatility model with the realized volatility, is investigated. Considering well known characteristics of nancial returns, heavy tail and negative skewness, the model is extended by employing a wider class distribution, the generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t-distribution, for nancial returns. With the Bayesian estimation scheme via Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the model enables us to estimate the parameters in the return distribution and in the model jointly. It also makes it possible to forecast volatility and return quantiles by sampling from their posterior distributions jointly. The model　is applied to quantile forecasts of nancial returns such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall as well as volatility forecasts and those forecasts are evaluated by various tests　and performance measures. Empirical results with the US and Japanese stock indices, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225, show that the extended model improves　the volatility and quantile forecasts especially in some volatile periods. --

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Takahashi & Toshiaki Watanabe & Yasuhiro Omori, 2015. "Volatility and Quantile Forecasts by Realized Stochastic Volatility Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-975, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2015cf975
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    Cited by:

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    2. Toshiaki Ogawa & Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2020. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia around the ZLB," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Asai Manabu & So Mike K. P., 2023. "Realized BEKK-CAW Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 49-77, January.
    4. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2020. "Dynamic factor, leverage and realized covariances in multivariate stochastic volatility," Papers 2011.06909, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    5. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Forecasting Daily Volatility of Stock Price Index Using Daily Returns and Realized Volatility," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-104, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Kurose, Yuta & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2020. "Multiple-block dynamic equicorrelations with realized measures, leverage and endogeneity," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 46-68.
    7. Yuta Kurose & Yasuhiro Omori, "undated". "Multiple-lock Dynamic Equicorrelations with Realized Measures, Leverage and Endogeneity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1075, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2018. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Realized Volatilities and Pairwise Realized Correlations," Papers 1809.09928, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    9. Cathy W.S. Chen & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2019. "Bayesian modeling and forecasting of Value‐at‐Risk via threshold realized volatility," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 747-765, May.
    10. Didit Nugroho & Takayuki Morimoto, 2015. "Estimation of realized stochastic volatility models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-Based methods," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 491-516, June.
    11. Yuta Kurose & Yasuhiro Omori, 2016. "Multiple-block Dynamic Equicorrelations with Realized Measures, Leverage and Endogeneity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1024, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    12. Cathy W. S. Chen & Edward M. H. Lin & Tara F. J. Huang, 2022. "Bayesian quantile forecasting via the realized hysteretic GARCH model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1317-1337, November.
    13. Yuta yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2019. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Realized Volatilities and Pairwise Realized Correlations," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1117, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    14. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2020. "Dynamic Factor, Leverage and Realized Covariances in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1158, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    15. Didit Budi Nugroho & Takayuki Morimoto, 2019. "Incorporating Realized Quarticity into a Realized Stochastic Volatility Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(4), pages 495-528, December.
    16. Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2021. "Mixed-frequency SV model for stock volatility and macroeconomics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 462-472.
    17. Watanabe, Toshiaki & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2023. "High-frequency realized stochastic volatility model," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-127, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Chiranjit Dutta & Kara Karpman & Sumanta Basu & Nalini Ravishanker, 2023. "Review of Statistical Approaches for Modeling High-Frequency Trading Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 1-48, May.
    19. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 958-969.
    20. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2021. "Dynamic Factor, Leverage and Realized Covariances in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1176, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    21. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," Bank of England working papers 660, Bank of England.
    22. Markus Vogl, 2022. "Quantitative modelling frontiers: a literature review on the evolution in financial and risk modelling after the financial crisis (2008–2019)," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(12), pages 1-69, December.
    23. Ahmed BenSaïda & Sabri Boubaker & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Skander Slim, 2018. "Value‐at‐risk under market shifts through highly flexible models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 790-804, December.
    24. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2016. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Realized Volatilities and Pairwise Realized Correlations ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1029, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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