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How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model

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  • Eickmeier, Sandra
  • Breitung, Jörg

Abstract

A high degree of cyclical synchronization between central and east European countries (CEECs) and the euro area is generally seen as a prerequisite for successful EMU enlargement. This paper investigates comovements between CEECs and the euro area. We first establish stylized facts on economic linkages using dynamic correlation and cohesion measures. By means of a large-scale dynamic factor model, we then identify the main structural common euro-area shocks and investigate their transmission to the CEECs in comparison to the current EMU members. We finally carry out a counterfactual experiment which allows us to assess the costs and benefits of accession to EMU for individual CEECs in terms of economic volatilities and the implications of enlargement for synchronization. Overall, our results are mixed. Dynamic business cycle and inflation correlations between CEECs and the euro area are, on average, lower than between individual EMU members and the euro area, but they are higher than for some small peripheral EMU countries. This is confirmed by our other measure, variance shares of output and inflation explained by common euro-area factors. The proliferation of euro-area shocks to the CEECs does not differ significantly from the propagation to EMU countries in most cases. Based on our counterfactual experiment, we do not find significant stabilizing or destabilizing effects through a common monetary policy and fixed exchange rates. We also find that business cycle synchronization between CEECs and between most CEECs and the euro area will increase. There seems to be considerable heterogeneity across CEECs, implying that for some countries, accession to EMU would be more costly than for others. According to our analysis and based on our measures, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary and Estonia are more suitable EMU candidates than other countries.

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  • Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:3379
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Todorov, 2012. "European Economic Integration Theories and Criteria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 131-152.
    2. Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2006. "How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 523-544, September.
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2011. "More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(3), pages 279-292.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    5. Christa Randzio-Plath & Carsten Hefeker & Jarko Fidrmuc & Gunther Schnabl & Hermann Remsperger, 2006. "Erweiterung der Eurozone: Welche Auswirkungen hat dies auf die europäische Wirtschaft?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 03-18, November.
    6. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2010. "Business cycle synchronization of the euro area with the new and negotiating member countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 288-306.
    7. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    8. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic Factor Models," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 3, pages 25-40, Springer.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-061 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kalina Durova, 2019. "Are the New Member States Ready to Join the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Perspective," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 72-95.
    11. Christian Schulz, 2007. "Forecasting economic growth for Estonia : application of common factor methodologies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Sep 2007.
    12. Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Giuseppe Piroli, 2015. "Macroeconomic dynamics in four selected new member states of the EU," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 40-51.
    13. Nenad Stanisic, 2013. "Convergence between the business cycles of Central and Eastern European countries and the Euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 63-74, July.
    14. António M Lopes & J A Tenreiro Machado & John S Huffstot & Maria Eugénia Mata, 2018. "Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2011. "More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(3), pages 279-292.
    16. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    17. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    18. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010. "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 203-227, June.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/259, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic factor models; international business cycles; EMU enlargement; counterfactual experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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