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Macroeconomic dynamics in four selected new member states of the EU

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  • Pasquale Foresti
  • Ugo Marani
  • Giuseppe Piroli

Abstract

In this paper, we employ a block structured near-vector autoregression in order to compare the reactions to euro area shocks in four new member states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania) and in the old member states of the EU. The methodology adopted also allows us to study the effects of national economic policies and their reactions to national shocks in each new member state. Our analysis demonstrates that possible asymmetric effects of the ECB's monetary policy cannot be excluded and that the potential accession of the new member states may increase the level of fiscal indiscipline in the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Giuseppe Piroli, 2015. "Macroeconomic dynamics in four selected new member states of the EU," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 40-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijepee:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:40-51
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union; monetary policy; fiscal policy; policy interaction; asymmetric shocks; EMU enlargement; fiscal discipline; Bulgaria; Hungary; Czech Republic; Romania; national policies; economic policies; national shocks; fiscal indiscipline; Eurozone.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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