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More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

    (Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft)

  • Pape, Markus

    (Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Universität Kiel)

Abstract

"We analyze unemployment dynamics for Germany on a regional basis by means of an approximate factor model. We first estimate the number of factors corresponding to the number of cycles. At least for the pre-'Hartz' reform data we find strong evidence for more than just one dynamic labor market cycle present in German regions. Thus, labor market dynamics are driven by more than a single nationwide business cycle. Next, we look for regional partitions reflecting the different cycles best. Our results indicate pronounced differences between East and West Germany for 1997 to 2004 and ongoing but reduced differences between 2005 and 2010. A convergence process is found to have taken place up until late 2001. There is evidence for the differences observed before 2004 to be driven by active labor market policy, which thus had a volatility-increasing effect on the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2011. "More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(3), pages 279-292.
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabzaf:v:44:i:3:p:279-292
    DOI: 10.1007/s12651-011-0089-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; Westdeutschland ; Auswirkungen ; Determinanten ; Hartz-Reform ; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung ; institutionelle Faktoren ; Konjunkturabhängigkeit ; ökonomische Faktoren ; regionale Verteilung ; regionaler Vergleich ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; 1998-2010;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

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