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Forecasting the electronification of payments with learning curves: The case of Finland

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  • Snellman, Jussi
  • Vesala, Jukka

Abstract

This paper examines the electronification of noncash payments in Finland and the extent to which noncash payment means are used as substitutes for cash. We model the processes of cash substitution and electronification of payments as 'S'-shaped learning curves and generate forecasts by extrapolating these curves. The 'S'-shaped learning curves fit the data well. Our results indicate that in Finland the cash substitution process as a whole is approaching the saturation point. Although the electronification process is clearly ongoing as regards larger-value bill payments, for small-value point-of-sale payments we seem to have reached saturation. Electronification of payments, having progressed swiftly and extensively in Finland, is already beginning to slow down. We conclude the paper with a discussion of the reasons for this turn of events and of the different factors that affect the speed of diffusion of new means of payment.

Suggested Citation

  • Snellman, Jussi & Vesala, Jukka, 1999. "Forecasting the electronification of payments with learning curves: The case of Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1999, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp1999_008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Humphrey, David B. & Setsuya, Sato & Masayoshi, Tsurumi & Vesala, Jukka M., 1996. "The evolution of payments in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. : lessons for emerging market economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1676, The World Bank.
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