IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v151y1988i3p491-498.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Modified Logistic Model Applied to Human Populations

Author

Listed:
  • Nigel Meade

Abstract

The use of the logistic curve for forecasting human populations considered by Leach is re‐examined. A modification of the use of the logistic curve is suggested, which changes the emphasis from fitting a logistic trend to providing a forecast logistic trend The assumption, used by Leach, that the variance of the additive disturbance term is constant is replaced by a more realistic supposition that the variance of the proportional disturbance is constant. The forecasting performance of the modified logistic model is shown to be superior to that of the model used by Leach.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel Meade, 1988. "A Modified Logistic Model Applied to Human Populations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(3), pages 491-498, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:151:y:1988:i:3:p:491-498
    DOI: 10.2307/2982996
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2982996
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2307/2982996?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguimkeu, Pierre, 2014. "A simple selection test between the Gompertz and Logistic growth models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 98-105.
    2. repec:bof:bofrdp:99_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Snellman, Jussi & Vesala, Jukka, 1999. "Forecasting the electronification of payments with learning curves: The case of Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1999, Bank of Finland.
    5. Snellman, Jussi & Vesala, Jukka, 1999. "Forecasting the elecronification of payments with learning curves : The case of Finland," Research Discussion Papers 8/1999, Bank of Finland.
    6. Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
    7. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:99_008 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:151:y:1988:i:3:p:491-498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.