IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitb/304310.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation

Author

Listed:
  • Norring, Anni

Abstract

First signs of headwinds to the global economy from geoeconomic fragmentation are emerging. This paper takes an overview on what is the current understanding of the economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation. The estimated and modelled economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation and geopolitics vary substantially. We need more research, standardized measures of geopolitical uncertainty, detailed data on protectionist measures and global value networks, plausible scenarios rooted in stylized facts and realistic models anchored in theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Norring, Anni, 2024. "The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:304310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/304310/1/1905432968.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    2. Nuri Baek & Kaustubh Chahande & Kodjovi M. Eklou & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Vatsal Nahata & Umang Rawat & Ara Stepanyan, 2023. "ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks," IMF Working Papers 2023/191, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
    4. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2024. "Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets," IMF Working Papers 2024/039, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Góes, Carlos & Bekkers, Eddy, 2022. "The impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade, growth, and innovation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2022-9, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Hamza Mighri & Henry Rawlings & Ivanova Reyes & Qianqian Zhang, 2024. "How Vulnerable is Sub-Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation?," IMF Working Papers 2024/083, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ms. Gita Gopinath & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Petia Topalova, 2024. "Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?," IMF Working Papers 2024/076, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Benjamin R Kett, 2023. "Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities," IMF Working Papers 2023/073, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Rui Mano & Johannes Eugster & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2021. "Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling," IMF Working Papers 2021/069, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Kerem Cosar & Benjamin Thomas, 2021. "The geopolitics of international trade in Southeast Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 207-219, February.
    11. Shushanik Hakobyan & Sergii Meleshchuk & Robert Zymek, 2023. "Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade," IMF Working Papers 2023/270, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Norring, Anni, 2024. "Geoeconomic fragmentation, globalization, and multilateralism," BoF Economics Review 2/2024, Bank of Finland.
    13. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2023. "Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade," IMF Working Papers 2023/225, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McCully, Tuuli & Simola, Heli, 2024. "Are supply chain vulnerabilities increasing in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 10/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    2. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," MPRA Paper 121726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    4. Cathrin Mohr & Christoph Trebesch, 2024. "Geoeconomics," CESifo Working Paper Series 11564, CESifo.
    5. Norring, Anni, 2024. "Geoeconomic fragmentation, globalization, and multilateralism," BoF Economics Review 2/2024, Bank of Finland.
    6. Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Giglioli, Simona & Giordano, Claire & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2024. "Trade Fragmentation Unveiled: Five Facts on the Reconfiguration of Global, US and EU Trade," MPRA Paper 122657, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Oct 2024.
    7. Han Qiu & Dora Xia & James Yetman, 2024. "Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    8. Ilkova, Ivelina & Lebastard, Laura & Serafini, Roberta, 2024. "Geopolitics and trade in the euro area and the United States: de-risking of import supplies?," Occasional Paper Series 359, European Central Bank.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry, 2024. "Globalization and growth in a bipolar world," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 714-722.
    10. Daragh Clancy & Donal Smith & Vilém Valenta, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Reorientation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 151-191, April.
    11. Berger, Eva M. & Bialek, Sylwia & Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Other, Lars & Salzmann, Leonard & Schnitzer, Monika & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU," Working Papers 01/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    12. Ze Zhang, 2023. "Mapping U.S.-China technological “decoupling†: Beyond U.S.-China relations," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(7), pages 2002-2005, September.
    13. Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2022. "European trade policy at the service of geopolitics? Requirements for new instruments from the perspective of family businesses," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 273454, March.
    14. Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Enrica Di Stefano & Vanessa Gunnella & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 700, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Byrne, Shane & Devine, Kenneth & King, Michael & McCarthy, Yvonne & Palmer, Christopher, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Borin, Alessandro & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Di Stefano, Enrica & Gunnella, Vanessa & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2023. "Trade decoupling from Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 25-44.
    17. JINJI Naoto & OZAWA Shunya, 2024. "Impact of Technological Decoupling between the United States and China on Trade and Welfare," Discussion papers 24041, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2024. "FraNK: fragmentation in the NK model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1475, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Ronnie Figueiredo & Mohammad Soliman & Alamir N. Al-Alawi & Maria José Sousa, 2022. "The Impacts of Geopolitical Risks on the Energy Sector: Micro-Level Operative Analysis in the European Union," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, November.
    20. Métivier, Jeanne & Bacchetta, Marc & Bekkers, Eddy & Koopman, Robert, 2023. "International trade cooperation’s impact on the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 713-744.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    geoeconomic fragmentation; globalization; trade; technology diffusion;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:304310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.