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The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation

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  • Norring, Anni

Abstract

First signs of headwinds to the global economy from geoeconomic fragmentation are emerging. This paper takes an overview on what is the current understanding of the economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation. The estimated and modelled economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation and geopolitics vary substantially. We need more research, standardized measures of geopolitical uncertainty, detailed data on protectionist measures and global value networks, plausible scenarios rooted in stylized facts and realistic models anchored in theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Norring, Anni, 2024. "The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:304310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. McCully, Tuuli & Simola, Heli, 2024. "Are supply chain vulnerabilities increasing in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 10/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    Keywords

    geoeconomic fragmentation; globalization; trade; technology diffusion;
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