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Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment

Author

Listed:
  • Han Qiu
  • Dora Xia
  • James Yetman

Abstract

Globalisation is threatened as countries impose trade restrictions, especially against trading partners with large geopolitical differences. This feature gauges the impact of this development on trade flows using granular bilateral trade data across finely disaggregated sectors. We find that geopolitical distance – based on country votes at the United Nations – helps explain recent trade dynamics. The impact is sizeable: over 2017–23, we estimate that quarter-on-quarter trade volumes grew around 2.5% more slowly for geopolitically distant countries relative to those that were closer. We also assess how vulnerable individual countries are to an intensification of geopolitical tensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Qiu & Dora Xia & James Yetman, 2024. "Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2409c
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
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    4. Ms. Gita Gopinath & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Petia Topalova, 2024. "Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?," IMF Working Papers 2024/076, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bosone, Costanza & Dautović, Ernest & Fidora, Michael & Stamato, Giovanni, 2024. "How geopolitics is changing trade," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    6. Blanga-Gubbay, Michael & Rubínová, Stela, 2023. "Is the global economy fragmenting?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    7. Shushanik Hakobyan & Sergii Meleshchuk & Robert Zymek, 2023. "Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade," IMF Working Papers 2023/270, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bryan Hardy & Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2024. "International finance through the lens of BIS statistics: bank exposures and country risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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