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Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Gita Gopinath
  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
  • Petia Topalova

Abstract

Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Gita Gopinath & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Petia Topalova, 2024. "Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?," IMF Working Papers 2024/076, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/076
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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia William Connell & Ho Victor, 2025. "External Vulnerability Index: A Tool to Assess Trade Weaknesses," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 40-45.
    2. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simona Giglioli & Claire Giordano & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2024. "Trade fragmentation unveiled: five facts on the reconfiguration of global, US and EU trade," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 881, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    4. Khalil, Makram & Osten, David & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Trade dynamics under geopolitical risk," Discussion Papers 03/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Asier Minondo, 2024. "El desempeño exportador de España: claves de un éxito," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2024-32, FEDEA.
    6. Norring, Anni, 2024. "The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Kagerer, B., 2024. "Geopolitics and corporate risk: Evidence from EU-Russia conflict shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2471, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Andreas Baur & Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Lisandra Flach, 2025. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Role of Non-Aligned Countries," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 526, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    10. Alessandro Barattieri & Aaditya Mattoo & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "Trade Effects of Industrial Policies : Are Preferential Agreements a Shield ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10806, The World Bank.
    11. Han Qiu & Dora Xia & James Yetman, 2024. "Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    12. Fetzer, Thiemo & Lambert, Peter John & Feld, Bennet & Garg, Prashant, 2024. "AI-Generated Production Networks: Measurement and Applications to Global Trade," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 733, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    13. Clayton, Christopher & Coppola, Antonio & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse, 2025. "Chokepoints: Identifying Economic Pressure," SocArXiv zsc4x_v1, Center for Open Science.
    14. Christoph Trebesch & Josefin Meyer & Jiaxian Zhou Wu & Alberto Martin & Fernando Broner, 2025. "Hegemony and International Alignment," Working Papers 1483, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Alen Mulabdic & Gaurav Nayyar, 2024. "Is the U.S. Friend-Shoring, Nearshoring, or Reshoring ? Evidence from Greenfield Investment Announcements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11006, The World Bank.
    16. Haishi Li & Zhi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang & Jing Wu, 2024. "To Comply or Not to Comply: Understanding Neutral Country Supply Chain Responses to Russian Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11110, CESifo.
    17. Joerg Mayer, 2024. "De-dollarization: the global payment infrastructure and wholesale central bank digital currencies," FMM Working Paper 102-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    18. Catherine Casanova & Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, 2024. "Chinese Banks and Their EMDE Borrowers: Have Their Relationships Changed in Times of Geoeconomic Fragmentation?," IMF Working Papers 2024/205, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Steven A. Altman & Caroline R. Bastian & Davis Fattedad, 2024. "Challenging the deglobalization narrative: Global flows have remained resilient through successive shocks," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(4), pages 416-439, December.
    20. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," MPRA Paper 121726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Andreas Baur, 2024. "Geoeconomics and Foreign Economic Policy – Quo Vadis EU?," EconPol Policy Brief 63, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    22. Aaditya Mattoo & Ruta,Michele & Staige,Robert W., 2024. "Geopolitics and the World Trading System," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11009, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Foreign direct investment; Geoeconomics; Fragmentation; supply chain resilience; restrictive policy; nonaligned connector; years of the Cold War; surge in policy; Trade balance; Imports; Trade agreements; Trade policy; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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