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A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Berger, Eva M.
  • Bialek, Sylwia
  • Garnadt, Niklas
  • Grimm, Veronika
  • Other, Lars
  • Salzmann, Leonard
  • Schnitzer, Monika
  • Truger, Achim
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine since 24 February 2022 has intensified the discussion of Europe's reliance on energy imports from Russia. A ban on Russian imports of oil, natural gas and coal has already been imposed by the United States, while the United Kingdom plans to cease imports of oil and coal from Russia by the end of 2022. The German Federal Government is currently opposing an energy embargo against Russia. However, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action is working on a strategy to reduce energy imports from Russia. In this paper, the authors give an overview of the German and European reliance on energy imports from Russia with a focus on gas imports and discuss price effects, alternative suppliers of natural gas, and the potential for saving and replacing natural gas. They also provide an overview of estimates of the consequences on the economic outlook if the conflict intensifies.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Eva M. & Bialek, Sylwia & Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Other, Lars & Salzmann, Leonard & Schnitzer, Monika & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU," IMFS Working Paper Series 166, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Becko, John Sturm, 2024. "A theory of economic sanctions as terms-of-trade manipulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Flach, Lisandra & Heiland, Inga & Larch, Mario & Steininger, Marina & Teti, Feodora A., 2023. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 302103, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Henrik Wachtmeister & Johan Gars & Daniel Spiro, 2022. "Quantity restrictions and price discounts on Russian oil," Papers 2212.00674, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    4. Niklas Garnadt & Ulrike M. Malmendier & Lars Other, 2022. "Geldpolitik im Zielkonflikt [Monetary policy in conflict with objectives]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(12), pages 910-911, December.

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