IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v46y2024i4p714-722.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Globalization and growth in a bipolar world

Author

Listed:
  • Eichengreen, Barry

Abstract

Globalization is not over, but it is being reconfigured by events. Internationally, there are economic and political tensions between the United States and China. Both countries have responded with import tariffs, export controls, and foreign investment restrictions that have led to a decline in the relative importance of bilateral trade and the collapse of bilateral foreign direct investment. The paper concludes that globalization remains deeply entrenched despite the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and U.S.-China tensions. At the same time, the landscape of globalization has been changing in response to these events and specifically in response to U.S.-China rivalry.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, 2024. "Globalization and growth in a bipolar world," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 714-722.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:4:p:714-722
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824000681
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry, 2023. "Globalization: Uncoupled or unhinged?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 685-692.
    4. Georg Erber & Ulrich Fritsche & Patrick Christian Harms, 2017. "The Global Productivity Slowdown: Diagnosis, Causes and Remedies," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 52(1), pages 45-50, January.
    5. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    6. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    7. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.
    8. Góes, Carlos & Bekkers, Eddy, 2022. "The impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade, growth, and innovation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2022-9, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Laura Alfaro & Davin Chor, 2023. "Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”," NBER Working Papers 31661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. De Lyon, Josh & Pessoa, Joao Paulo, 2021. "Worker and firm responses to trade shocks: The UK-China case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Eichengreen, Barry & Saka, Orkun, 2022. "Cultural Stereotypes of Multinational Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    14. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Benjamin R Kett, 2023. "Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities," IMF Working Papers 2023/073, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sharat Ganapati & Woan Foong Wong, 2023. "How Far Goods Travel: Global Transport and Supply Chains from 1965–2020," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    16. Arvind Subramanian & Martin Kessler & Emanuele Properzi, 2023. "Trade hyperglobalization is dead. Long live...?," Working Paper Series WP23-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    17. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Tryggvi Gudmundsson & Ms. Anna Ilyina & Mr. Alvar Kangur & Tansaya Kunaratskul & Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez & Mi, 2023. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2023/001, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Boris Hofmann & Nikhil Patel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Original sin redux: a model-based evaluation," BIS Working Papers 1004, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Honig, Adam, 2008. "Do improvements in government quality necessarily reduce the incidence of costly sudden stops?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 360-373, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.
    4. Mastrosavvas, Andreas, 2024. "Social Networks and Brexit: Evidence from a Trade Shock," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," MPRA Paper 121726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Norring, Anni, 2024. "Geoeconomic fragmentation, globalization, and multilateralism," BoF Economics Review 2/2024, Bank of Finland.
    7. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    8. Shuhei Kainuma & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3559-3601, November.
    9. Philip Stevens & Jasson Urbach & Gabrielle Wills, 2013. "Healthy Trade: The Relationship Between Open Trade and Health," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 125-135, February.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    11. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Huy Quang Doan, 2019. "Trade, Institutional Quality and Income: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2008. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: a Reassessment," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 105-152, September.
    14. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    15. Komlos, John & Schubert, Hermann, 2019. "Les origines du triomphe de Donald Trump," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    16. Philippe Aghion & Robin Burgess & Stephen J. Redding & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2008. "The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence from Dismantling the License Raj in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1397-1412, September.
    17. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-011, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    18. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    19. Lucas Bretschger, 2003. "Growth in a Globalised Economy: The Effects of Capital Taxes and Tax Competition," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 03/24, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    20. Cattaneo, Cristina & Foreman, Timothy, 2023. "Climate change, international migration, and interstate conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:4:p:714-722. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.