IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitb/307141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are supply chain vulnerabilities increasing in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation?

Author

Listed:
  • McCully, Tuuli
  • Simola, Heli

Abstract

We examine changes in the manufacturing sector value chains of the EU, US, China, and India between 2018 and 2023 by introducing three metrics for supply-chain vulnerability. For our first metric, the physical length of a supply chain based on the distance between the producer of the final product and input source country, we find modest evidence of near-shoring for the US, EU, and India. Second, utilizing political distances between the supply chain participants, our assessment of the geopolitical risks of supply chains reveals slight friend-shoring by the US and EU, mainly a result of Russia's reduced participation in their supply chains. Third, looking at the already extensive supply chain diversification of the studied countries, we find diversification has increased modestly since 2018.

Suggested Citation

  • McCully, Tuuli & Simola, Heli, 2024. "Are supply chain vulnerabilities increasing in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 10/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:307141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/307141/1/1910819514.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norring, Anni, 2024. "The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Laura Alfaro & Davin Chor, 2023. "Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”," NBER Working Papers 31661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Simola, Heli, 2023. "Trends in Chinese value chains 2018-2022," BOFIT Policy Briefs 14/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Christine Arriola & Mattia Cai & Przemyslaw Kowalski & Sébastien Miroudot & Frank van Tongeren, 2024. "Towards demystifying trade dependencies: At what point do trade linkages become a concern?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 280, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2023. "Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 79-167.
    2. Paul Lavery & Marina Spaliara & Holger Görg, 2024. "Private equity buyouts & firm exporting in crisis periods: Exploring a new channel," Working Papers 2024_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry, 2024. "Globalization and growth in a bipolar world," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 714-722.
    4. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Li, Xiang, 2023. "Global political ties and the global financial cycle," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Jason Dunn & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Decoupling Where it Matters? US Imports from China in Critical Sectors," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 1, pages 1-3, January.
    6. Ilkova, Ivelina & Lebastard, Laura & Serafini, Roberta, 2024. "Geopolitics and trade in the euro area and the United States: de-risking of import supplies?," Occasional Paper Series 359, European Central Bank.
    7. Martinez, Nain & Terrazas-Santamaria, Diana, 2024. "Beyond nearshoring: The political economy of Mexico's emerging electric vehicle industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Yasuyuki Todo & Shuhei Nishitateno & Sean Brown, 2025. "The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Foreign Direct Investment from China, the United States, and Major Investor Countries," Working Papers 2414, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    9. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Shota Miki & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2024. "On the Restructuring of Global Semiconductor Supply Chains," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    11. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," MPRA Paper 121726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. James Harold, 2024. "Der Zolltarif als Trumpfkarte," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(12), pages 827-832.
    13. Haishi Li & Zhi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang & Jing Wu, 2024. "To Comply or Not to Comply: Understanding Neutral Country Supply Chain Responses to Russian Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11110, CESifo.
    14. Duran-Fernandez, Roberto, 2024. "Nearshoring in Mexico: Navigating Expectations and Realities of the Reconfiguration of Global Value Chains," EconStor Preprints 301885, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Andreas Baur & Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Lisandra Flach, 2025. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Role of Non-Aligned Countries," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 526, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    16. Matteo Crosignani & Lina Han & Marco Macchiavelli & André F. Silva, 2024. "Securing Technological Leadership? The Cost of Export Controls on Firms," Staff Reports 1096, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Beck, Anne & Lim, Sunghun & Taglioni, Daria, 2024. "Understanding firm networks in global agricultural value chains," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Simola, Heli, 2023. "Trends in Chinese value chains 2018-2022," BOFIT Policy Briefs 14/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    19. Lavery, Paul & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Görg, Holger, 2024. "Private equity buyouts & firm exporting in crisis periods: Exploring a new channel," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 306864, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global value chains; supply chains; fragmentation; value-added trade; input-output;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:307141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.