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Entwicklung eines Simulationstools zur Analyse von Prognose- und Dispositionsentscheidungen im Krankenhausbereich

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  • Jussim, Maxim

Abstract

In der heutigen Zeit steht der Krankenhausbereich unter einem enormen Kostendruck. Viele Initiativen diesem entgegenzuwirken sind auf das Bestandsmanagement gerichtet, da hier Einsparpotentiale vermutet werden. Entscheidungen über die Wahl eines Prognoseverfahrens sowie einer effektiven Materialdisposition, spielen hierbei eine zentrale Rolle. Zu diesem Zweck wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit ein Simulationstool entwickelt, mit dem Entscheidungen in diesen beiden Bereichen simuliert werden können. Es werden die Prognoseverfahren der exponentiellen Glättung, sowie das Verfahren von Croston mit seinen Erweiterungen, implementiert. Bezüglich der Materialdisposition wurden, neben heuristischen Nachschubstrategien, Verfahren zur Optimierung von Bestellpunkt und Bestellmenge implementiert. Nach einer Validierung wird das Simulationsprogramm anhand realer Daten eines Logistikdienstleisters im medizinischen Bereich praktisch evaluiert. Dabei wurde die Konsistenz der Simulationsergebnisse mit den zugrundeliegenden Modellen bestätigt. Außerdem deuten die Simulationsergebnisse darauf hin, dass der Logistikdienstleister mit der richtigen Kombination aus Prognosemethoden und Nachschubstrategie eine Lagerkostensenkung von bis zu 37% realisieren kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Jussim, Maxim, 2014. "Entwicklung eines Simulationstools zur Analyse von Prognose- und Dispositionsentscheidungen im Krankenhausbereich," Bayreuth Reports on Information Systems Management 57, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Information Systems Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bayism:57
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    Keywords

    Prognose- und Dispositionsentscheidungen; Krankenhausbereich; Simulationstool;
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