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Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore

Author

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  • Min Hwang

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • John M. Quigley

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

Despite evidence that aggregate housing price are predictable, a random walk in time and independence in space are two maintained hypotheses in the empirical models for housing price measurement used by government and commercial companies. This paper examines the price discovery process in individual dwellings over time and space by relaxing both assumptions, using data from the Singapore private condominium market. We develop a model that tests directly the hypotheses that the prices of individual dwellings follow a random walk over time and that the price of an individual dwelling is independent of the price of a neighboring dwelling. The model is general enough to include other widely used models of housing price determination, such as Bailey, Muth, and Nourse (1963), Case and Shiller (1987) and Redfearn and Quigley (2000), as special cases. The empirical results clearly support mean reversion in housing prices and also diffusion of innovations over space. Our estimates of the level of housing prices, derived from a generalized repeat sales model, suggest that serial and spatial correlation matters in the computation of price indices and the estimation of price levels. investment returns is completely absent.

Suggested Citation

  • Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2003. "Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore," Macroeconomics 0303011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0303011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goetzmann, William N & Spiegel, Matthew, 1997. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 11-31, Jan.-Marc.
    2. Dubin, Robin A, 1998. "Predicting House Prices Using Multiple Listings Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 35-59, July.
    3. Englund, Peter & Gordon, Tracy M. & Quigley, John M., 1999. "The Valuation of Real Capital: A Random Walk down Kungsgatan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-216, September.
    4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    5. Basu, Sabyasachi & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1998. "Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, July.
    6. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    7. Dean H. Gatzlaff, 1994. "Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(4), pages 553-581, December.
    8. repec:arz:wpaper:eres1999-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Can, Ayse & Megbolugbe, Isaac, 1997. "Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 203-222, Jan.-Marc.
    10. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2006. "Efficiency In Housing Markets: Do Home Buyers Know How To Discount?," Working Papers in Economics 232, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2004. "Selectivity, Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2_3), pages 161-178, March.
    3. Hua Sun & Seow Ong, 2014. "Bidding Heterogeneity, Signaling Effect and its Implications on House Seller’s Pricing Strategy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 568-597, November.
    4. Charles Leung, 2007. "Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February.
    5. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2009. "Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2150-2163, November.
    6. Hua Sun & Yong Tu & Shi-Ming Yu, 2005. "A Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Model for Multi-Unit Residential Market Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 155-187, September.
    7. Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Arno J. Van der Vlist, 2003. "Spatial Econometric Data Analysis: Moving Beyond Traditional Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 223-243, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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