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Investment Returns and Price Discovery in the Market for Owner-Occupied Housing

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  • John M. Quigley
  • Christian L. Redfearn

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of owner-occupied housing prices both at thelevel of the individual dwelling and in aggregate. Using a unique data set, a modelof individual dwelling prices is estimated that represents features of housing marketsmore faithfully than competing models. Statistical tests strongly reject the hypothesisthat individual housing prices follow a random walk in favor of the alternative hypoth-esis that housing prices are mean reverting. This result also holds in aggregate, andprovides an explanation for the \inertia" reported in housing return series. The paperthen demonstrates that real and excess returns are forecastable. Finally, it considersempirically the extent to which the transactions costs associated with home ownershippreclude pro table speculation in owner-occupied housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Quigley & Christian L. Redfearn, 2000. "Investment Returns and Price Discovery in the Market for Owner-Occupied Housing," Working Paper 8640, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    • Handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:8640
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    File URL: http://lusk.usc.edu/sites/default/files/working_papers/wp_2000_1012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goetzmann, William N & Spiegel, Matthew, 1995. "Non-temporal Components of Residential Real Estate Appreciation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 199-206, February.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    3. Guntermann, Karl L & Norrbin, Stefan C, 1991. "Empirical Tests of Real Estate Market Efficiency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 297-313, September.
    4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    5. Englund, Peter & Quigley, John M. & Redfearn, Christian L., 1998. "Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 171-196, September.
    6. Dean H. Gatzlaff, 1994. "Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(4), pages 553-581, December.
    7. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
    8. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frame, David E., 2004. "Equilibrium and migration in dynamic models of housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 93-112, January.

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