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EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Jestl

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Robert Stehrer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Jestl & Robert Stehrer, 2021. "EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond," wiiw Research Reports 457, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:457
    as

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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/eu-employment-dynamics-the-pandemic-years-and-beyond-dlp-5975.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 439-458, July.
    4. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Misty Heggeness, 2020. "Why Is Mommy So Stressed? Estimating the Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Parental Attachment to the Labor Market and the Double Bind of Mothers," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2021. "Value Chain Integration of the Western Balkan Countries and Policy Options for the Post-COVID-19 Period," wiiw Policy Notes 48, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Misty L. Heggeness, 2020. "Estimating the immediate impact of the COVID-19 shock on parental attachment to the labor market and the double bind of mothers," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1053-1078, December.
    8. Sylwia Nowak & Pratiti Chatterjee, 2016. "Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2016/228, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Stehrer & Stella Zilian, 2025. "Beschäftigungswirkungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft und demografische Szenarien," FIW Research Reports series RR-01-25-, FIW.
    2. Robert Stehrer & Stella Zilian, 2025. "Beschäftigungswirkungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft und demografische Szenarien," FIW Research Reports series RR-01-25-, FIW.
    3. Qiance Liu & Litao Liu & Xiaojie Liu & Shenggong Li & Gang Liu, 2021. "Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1631-1643, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU employment dynamics; forecasts; pandemic; recovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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