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TTIP und ihre Auswirkungen auf Österreich. Ein kritischer Literaturüberblick

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  • Fritz Breuss

Abstract

Mit einem umfassenden Handels- und Investitionsabkommen (TTIP) wollen die EU und die USA die größte Freihandelszone der Welt errichten und damit Wachstum und Beschäftigung stimulieren. Zwar prognostizieren alle bisherigen TTIP-Studien positive Handels-, Wohlfahrts- und Beschäftigungseffekte für beide Vertragsparteien (allerdings in ungleichem Ausmaß), doch treten diese nicht sofort ein, sondern erst sehr langfristig. Die TTIP ist daher zur Überwindung der gegenwärtigen Krise nicht geeignet. Die geschätzten Liberalisierungseffekte divergieren erheblich je nach Methode: Während allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle (CGE-Modelle) sehr geringe Wohlfahrtseffekte ermitteln (½% bis 1% des BIP), versprechen Schätzungen mit Gravitationsmodellen außerordentlich hohe Gewinne (Steigerung der Realeinkommen in der EU um 5% und in den USA um 13,4%). Für Österreich wird eine langfristig realisierbare BIP-Zunahme um 1,7% (CGE-Modell) bis 2,7% (Gravitationsmodell) geschätzt. Politisch heikel sind die Aussagen bezüglich der Auswirkungen auf Drittländer. Hier orten Schätzungen mit Gravitationsmodellen höchste Verluste für Handel (Handelsumlenkung) und Wohlfahrt. Das könnte die Genehmigung einer TTIP durch die WTO problematisch machen. NGOs und die interessierte Öffentlichkeit sind – angesichts der scheinbaren Intransparenz der Verhandlungen – darüber hinaus zunehmend skeptisch geworden. Die Europäische Kommission hat daher im Frühjahr 2014 die Verhandlungen im Bereich Investitionsschutz vorübergehend ausgesetzt, um die Öffentlichkeit besser zu informieren.

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  • Fritz Breuss, 2014. "TTIP und ihre Auswirkungen auf Österreich. Ein kritischer Literaturüberblick," WIFO Working Papers 468, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2014:i:468
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Grübler & Oliver Reiter, 2020. "Greater than the sum of its parts? Does Austria profit from a widening network of EU free trade agreements?," FIW Research Reports series VII-004, FIW.
    2. Fritz Breuss, 2020. "Pro-Globalization via FTAs in Times of COVID-19," WIFO Working Papers 617, WIFO.
    3. repec:wsr:ecbook:2020:i:vii-004 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Julia Grübler & Oliver Reiter, 2020. "Greater than the Sum of its Parts? How does Austria Profit from a Widening Network of EU Free Trade Agreements?," wiiw Working Papers 186, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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