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How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022

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  • Agarwal,Ruchir
  • Reed,Tristan

Abstract

How can the world reach herd immunity against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60 percent of the population in each country by March 2022 is likely sufficient to achieve worldwide herd immunity under a baseline scenario with limited mutation. Achieving this target appears feasible given stated production capacity of vaccine manufacturers and the pace of current and historical vaccination campaigns. Considering existing pre-purchase contracts for vaccines, achieving this target requires addressing a procurement gap of just 350 million vaccine courses in low- and middle-income countries. Immediate additional donor funding of about $4 billion or in-kind donations of excess orders by high-income countries would be sufficient to close this gap. There are additional challenges along the path to achieving world-wide herd immunity---including supply chain issues, trade restrictions, vaccine delivery, and mutations. Overall however, this analysis suggests multilateral action now can bring an end to the acute phase of the pandemic early next year.

Suggested Citation

  • Agarwal,Ruchir & Reed,Tristan, 2021. "How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9632, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9632
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Joe Hilton & Matt J Keeling, 2020. "Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-10, July.
    3. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2020. "A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2020/114, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Angus Deaton, 2021. "COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality," NBER Working Papers 28392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruchir Agarwal & Tristan Reed, 2022. "Financing vaccine equity: funding for day-zero of the next pandemic," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 833-850.
    2. Agarwal, Ruchir & Gaule, Patrick, 2022. "What drives innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Cozzi, Guido & Galli, Silvia, 2022. "Covid-19 Vaccines, Innovation, and Intellectual Property Rights," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1095, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Cozzi, Guido, 2022. "Shall we fear a Patent Waiver? Not for Covid-19 Vaccines," MPRA Paper 111990, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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