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How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?

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  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

The study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of cropland and average crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is located is provided. Using current conditions, the model calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue, and estimates the future impact of climate change using two scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change much across the two climate scenarios. However, the predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4717, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4717
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(01), pages 1-23, March.
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    3. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
    4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, 2008. "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report," Working Papers id:1325, eSocialSciences.
    5. Robert Mendelsohn & Larry Williams, 2004. "Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 315-333, October.
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    15. Knox, J.W. & Rodríguez Díaz, J.A. & Nixon, D.J. & Mkhwanazi, M., 2010. "A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 63-72, February.
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    Climate Change; Common Property Resource Development; Forestry; Crops&Crop Management Systems; Global Environment Facility;
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