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The Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture In West Africa: A Bio-Economic Modeling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • BORIS O. K. LOKONON

    (Department of Economics and Management Sciences (FASEG), University of Parakou, Parakou, Benin)

  • AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE

    (#x2020;Department of Economics and Management Sciences (FASEG), University of Lomé, Togo PO Box 1515, Lomé, Togo)

  • NAGA COULIBALY

    (#x2021;Department of Sciences and Environment Management, University of Nangui Abrogoua, Cote d’Ivoire)

  • CALVIN ATEWAMBA

    (#xA7;United Nations University Institute for Natural Resources in Africa (UNU-INRA), Accra, Ghana)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris O. K. Lokonon & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Naga Coulibaly & Calvin Atewamba, 2019. "The Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture In West Africa: A Bio-Economic Modeling Approach," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-30, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:10:y:2019:i:04:n:s2010007819500155
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007819500155
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