IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v103y2010i2p63-72.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland

Author

Listed:
  • Knox, J.W.
  • Rodríguez Díaz, J.A.
  • Nixon, D.J.
  • Mkhwanazi, M.

Abstract

The spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements and yield for sugarcane grown in Swaziland have been assessed, by combining the outputs from a general circulation model (HadCM3), a sugarcane crop growth model and a GIS. The CANEGRO model (embedded with the DSSAT program) was used to simulate the baseline and future cane net annual irrigation water requirements (IRnet) and yield (t ha-1) using a reference site and selected emissions scenario (SRES A2 and B2) for the 2050s (including CO2-fertilisation effects). The simulated baseline yields were validated against field data from 1980 to 1997. An aridity index was defined and used to correlate agroclimate variability against irrigation need to estimate the baseline and future irrigation water demand (volumetric). To produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of production, future irrigation needs were predicted to increase by 20-22%. With CO2-fertilisation, the impacts of climate change are offset by higher crop yields, such that IRnet is predicted to increase by 9%. The study showed that with climate change, the current peak capacity of existing irrigation schemes could fail to meet the predicted increases in irrigation demand in nearly 50% of years assuming unconstrained water availability.

Suggested Citation

  • Knox, J.W. & Rodríguez Díaz, J.A. & Nixon, D.J. & Mkhwanazi, M., 2010. "A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 63-72, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:2:p:63-72
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308-521X(09)00104-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Silva, C.S. & Weatherhead, E.K. & Knox, J.W. & Rodriguez-Diaz, J.A., 2007. "Predicting the impacts of climate change--A case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 19-29, October.
    2. David S. G. Thomas & Melanie Knight & Giles F. S. Wiggs, 2005. "Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7046), pages 1218-1221, June.
    3. Deressa, T. & Hassan, Rashid M. & Poonyth, Daneswar, 2005. "Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4717, The World Bank.
    5. Thomas Downing & Lasse Ringius & Mike Hulme & Dominic Waughray, 1997. "Adapting to climate change in Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 19-44, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Marin & James Jones & Abraham Singels & Frederick Royce & Eduardo Assad & Giampaolo Pellegrino & Flávio Justino, 2013. "Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 227-239, March.
    2. Verma, Amit Kumar & Garg, Pradeep Kumar & Prasad, K.S. Hari & Dadhwal, Vinay Kumar, 2023. "Variety-specific sugarcane yield simulations and climate change impacts on sugarcane yield using DSSAT-CSM-CANEGRO model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    3. Houma, Abdusslam A. & Kamal, Md Rowshon & Mojid, Md Abdul & Abdullah, Ahmad Fikri B. & Wayayok, A., 2021. "Climate change impacts on rice yield of a large-scale irrigation scheme in Malaysia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    4. Jones, M.R. & Singels, A. & Ruane, A.C., 2015. "Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 260-270.
    5. Rowshon, M.K. & Dlamini, N.S. & Mojid, M.A. & Adib, M.N.M. & Amin, M.S.M. & Lai, S.H., 2019. "Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 138-152.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongdeng Lei & Jing’ai Wang & Yaojie Yue & Hongjian Zhou & Weixia Yin, 2014. "Rethinking the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation from a disaster risk perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 609-627, January.
    2. Tamiru Lemi & Fekadu Hailu, 2019. "Effects of Climate Change Variability on Agricultural Productivity," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 17(1), pages 14-20, February.
    3. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    4. Phogat, V. & Cox, J.W. & Šimůnek, J., 2018. "Identifying the future water and salinity risks to irrigated viticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 107-117.
    5. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Robert & Faggia, Rob, 2019. "The Cost of Climate Change to Agricultural Industries: Coconuts in Sri Lanka," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 10(05), December.
    6. Ye, Qing & Yang, Xiaoguang & Dai, Shuwei & Chen, Guangsheng & Li, Yong & Zhang, Caixia, 2015. "Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-44.
    7. Unknown, 2013. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 09, Number 1, 2013," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 140-140.
    8. Olson, Kent, 2013. "Trends, issues, threats, and opportunities affecting farmers," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 52(4), August.
    9. Zeynep K. Hansen & Gary D. Libecap & Scott E. Lowe, 2011. "Climate Variability and Water Infrastructure: Historical Experience in the Western United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 253-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. B. Sonneveld & M. Keyzer & P. Adegbola & S. Pande, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in West Africa: An Assessment for the Oueme River Basin in Benin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 553-579, January.
    11. Amelia Carolina Sparavigna, 2013. "A Case Study of Moving Sand Dunes: The Barchans of the Kharga Oasis," International Journal of Sciences, Office ijSciences, vol. 2(08), pages 95-97, August.
    12. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    13. Donna Hornby & Adrian Nel & Samuel Chademana & Nompilo Khanyile, 2018. "A Slipping Hold? Farm Dweller Precarity in South Africa’s Changing Agrarian Economy and Climate," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-25, March.
    14. Eriyagama, Nishadi & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2010. "Observed and projected climatic changes, their impacts and adaptation options for Sri Lanka: a review," IWMI Conference Proceedings 211313, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Zhang, Qingsong & Sun, Jiahao & Zhang, Guangxin & Liu, Xuemei & Wu, Yanfeng & Sun, Jingxuan & Hu, Boting, 2023. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of water supply–demand patterns under large-scale paddy expansion: Implications for regional sustainable water resource management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    16. Jane Kabubo‐Mariara, 2008. "Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 131-141, May.
    17. Lanie A. Alejo & Victor B. Ella & Rubenito M. Lampayan & Aurelio A. Delos Reyes, 2021. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on irrigation diversion water requirement in the Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Ojo, T.O. & Baiyegunhi, L.J.S., 2020. "Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies and its impact on the net farm income of rice farmers in south-west Nigeria," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    19. Jane Kabubo-Mariara & Richard Mulwa, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change and climate variability and its implications for household food security in Kenya," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1289-1304, December.
    20. Karen Villholth & Lorraine Rajasooriyar, 2010. "Groundwater Resources and Management Challenges in Sri Lanka–an Overview," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(8), pages 1489-1513, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:2:p:63-72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.