IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2874.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risks and macroeconomic impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : why waiting to intervene can be costly

Author

Listed:
  • Robalino, David A.
  • Jenkins, Carol
  • El Maroufi, Karim

Abstract

The authors develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Robalino, David A. & Jenkins, Carol & El Maroufi, Karim, 2002. "Risks and macroeconomic impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : why waiting to intervene can be costly," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2874, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2002/09/07/000094946_02081604293439/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mr. Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 2001/080, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Robalino, David A. & Voetberg, Albertus & Picazo, Oscar, 2002. "The macroeconomic impacts of AIDS in Kenya estimating optimal reduction targets for the HIV/AIDS incidence rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 195-218, May.
    3. World Bank, 2002. "Reducing Vulnerability and Increasing Opportunity : Social Protection in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14255.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    5. Robalino, David & Lempert, Robert, 2000. "Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world," MPRA Paper 12002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Pizer, William, 1997. "Optimal Choice of Policy Instrument and Stringency Under Uncertainty: The Case of Climate Change," RFF Working Paper Series dp-97-17, Resources for the Future.
    7. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    8. World Bank, 2002. "World Development Indicators 2002," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13921.
    9. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(2), pages 173-189, May.
    10. Kahn, J.G., 1996. "The cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention targeting: How much more bang for the buck?," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 86(12), pages 1709-1712.
    11. Ainsworth, Martha & Over, Mead, 1994. "AIDS and African Development," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 9(2), pages 203-240, July.
    12. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jamsheed Shorish, 2007. "Welfare analysis of HIV/AIDS: Formulating and computing a continuous time overlapping generations policy model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0709, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Anzhelika Podymova & Irina Baskakova & Marina Balandina, 2018. "Evaluation of Social and Economic Losses from Premature Mortality caused by HIV Infection," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1341-1355.
    3. Beegle, Kathleen, 2005. "Labor Effects of Adult Mortality in Tanzanian Households," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 655-683, April.
    4. Simone Peart Boyce & Andrés A. Berruti & Helen Connolly & Miriam Schneidman, 2015. "Evaluating the Economic and Health Impacts of Investing in Laboratories in East Africa: Development and Application of a Conceptual Framework," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 97386, The World Bank.
    5. repec:pra:mprapa:10841 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kabajulizi, Judith & Ncube, Mthuli, 2017. "Financing HIV/AIDS responses in Africa: Impact evidence from Uganda," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 843-860.
    2. Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(5), pages 697-715.
    3. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    4. Kenneth Harttgen, 2007. "The Impact of HIV on Children´s Welfare," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 157, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Judith Kabajulizi & Judith Kabajulizi & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "The economy wide impact of HIV/AIDS and the funding dilemma in Africa: Evidence from a dynamic life cycle horizon," EcoMod2015 8563, EcoMod.
    6. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
    7. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Pedro de Araujo, 2008. "The Socio-Economic Distribution of AIDS Incidence and Output," Caepr Working Papers 2008-014_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    9. de Araujo, Pedro & Murray, James, 2010. "A Life Insurance Deterrent to Risky Behavior in Africa," MPRA Paper 22675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Enrico Lovász & Bernhard Schipp, 2009. "The Impact Of Hiv/Aids On Economic Growth In Sub‐Saharan Africa1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 245-256, June.
    11. José Cuesta, 2008. "¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?," Research Department Publications 4568, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Pedro de Araujo, 2008. "The Socio-Economic Distribution of AIDS Incidence and Output," Caepr Working Papers 2008-014_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington, revised Sep 2008.
    14. Desmond, Christopher & Greener, Robert, 2003. "The strategic use and potential demand for an HIV vaccine in Southern Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2977, The World Bank.
    15. Sanghamitra Das & Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay & Tridip Ray, 2008. "Negative reality of the HIV positives: Evaluating welfare loss in a low prevalence country," Discussion Papers 08-02, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    16. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2002. "AIDS and Income Distribution in Africa; A Micro-simulation Study for Côte d'Ivoire," Working Papers DT/2002/15, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    17. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Samuel Pessôa & Marcelo Rodrigues Dos Santos, 2011. "The Impact Of Aids On Income And Human Capital," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 1104-1116, October.
    18. Edwards, Jeffrey A. & Al-Hmoud, Rashid & Fawaz, Fadi, 2007. "The effects of HIV/AIDS infections and mortality on saving and investment," MPRA Paper 36308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. John Anyanwu & Ejikeme Okonkwo & Yaovi Gassesse Siliadin, 2012. "Working Paper 148 - Role of Fiscal Policy in Tackling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Southern Africa," Working Paper Series 380, African Development Bank.
    20. Nicoli Nattrass*, 2003. "Aids, Economic Growth And Income Distribution In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(3), pages 428-454, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.