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SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »

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  • Nicolas Couderc
  • Nicolas Drouhin
  • Bruno Ventelou

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to re-examine the consequences of AIDS on economic growth inAfrica.The model is based on two crucial hypothesis: i) AIDS has a short-term impact on a flow variable (the flow of labour available and capable of working at a moment t in the economy); ii) AIDS has a long-term impact on stock variables (human capital, i.e. the stock of health or the stock of education and competence incorporated in the workers; and physical capital). Integrating these two impacts in a model of growth with multiple factors of accumulation reverses the standard impact-evaluations based on classicaltools(Solow-typemodelofgrowth,with?catching-upeffect?asmechanismof development). An involution trap appears for a reasonable range of epidemiological shocks, corresponding to a modification of the long-term growth regime of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(5), pages 697-715.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_165_0697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Paul Moatti & Bruno Ventelou, 2009. "Économie de la santé dans les pays en développement des paradigmes en mutation," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(2), pages 241-256.

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