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The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana

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  • Ms. Silvia Sgherri
  • Mr. Maitland MacFarlan

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 5½ percent a year without the pandemic to between 1½ and 2½ percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mr. Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 2001/080, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/080
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Further Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS: The Dualistic, Labor-Surplus Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(3), pages 403-417, September.
    2. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > AIDS/HIV

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Anyanwu & Ejikeme Okonkwo & Yaovi Gassesse Siliadin, 2012. "Working Paper 148 - Role of Fiscal Policy in Tackling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Southern Africa," Working Paper Series 380, African Development Bank.
    2. Robalino, David A. & Jenkins, Carol & El Maroufi, Karim, 2002. "Risks and macroeconomic impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : why waiting to intervene can be costly," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2874, The World Bank.
    3. Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(5), pages 697-715.
    4. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2002. "AIDS and Income Distribution in Africa; A Micro-simulation Study for Côte d'Ivoire," Working Papers DT/2002/15, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    5. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    6. Kenneth Harttgen, 2007. "The Impact of HIV on Children´s Welfare," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 157, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Judith Kabajulizi, 2013. "Macroeconomic Implications Of Health Sector Reforms In Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," EcoMod2013 5158, EcoMod.
    8. Kabajulizi, Judith & Ncube, Mthuli, 2017. "Financing HIV/AIDS responses in Africa: Impact evidence from Uganda," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 843-860.
    9. Joana Godinho & Thomas Novotny & Hiwote Tadesse & Anatoly Vinokur, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis in Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15061.
    10. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. Mr. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 2002/195, International Monetary Fund.

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