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Can Economic Assistance Shape Combatant Support in Wartime? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan

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  • LYALL, JASON
  • ZHOU, YANG-YANG
  • IMAI, KOSUKE

Abstract

Governments, militaries, and aid organizations all rely on economic interventions to shape civilian attitudes toward combatants during wartime. We have, however, little individual-level evidence that these “hearts and minds” programs actually influence combatant support. We address this problem by conducting a factorial randomized control trial of two common interventions—vocational training and cash transfers—on combatant support among 2,597 at-risk youth in Kandahar, Afghanistan. We find that training only improved economic livelihoods modestly and had little effect on combatant support. Cash failed to lift incomes, producing a boom-and-bust dynamic in which pro-government sentiment initially spiked and then quickly reversed itself, leaving a residue of increased Taliban support. Conditional on training, cash failed to improve beneficiaries’ livelihoods but did increase support for the Afghan government for at least eight months after the intervention. These findings suggest that aid affects attitudes by providing information about government resolve and competence rather than by improving economic livelihoods.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyall, Jason & Zhou, Yang-Yang & Imai, Kosuke, 2020. "Can Economic Assistance Shape Combatant Support in Wartime? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 126-143, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:114:y:2020:i:1:p:126-143_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Premand & Dominic Rohner, 2024. "Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 137-153, March.
    2. Kubota, Yuichi & Ullah Khan, Hidayat & Kurosaki, Takashi & Obayashi, Kazuhiro & Ohmura, Hirotaka, 2024. "Wartime service provision and post-conflict state legitimacy: Perception-based foundation of sustainable development in Northwestern Pakistan," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    3. Benjamin Krick & Jonathan Petkun & Mara Revkin, 2023. "What Determines Military Legitimacy? Evidence from the Battle of Mosul in Iraq," HiCN Working Papers 402, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Grossman, Allison N. & Nomikos, William George & Siddiqui, Niloufer, 2021. "Can Appeals For Peace Promote Tolerance and Mitigate Support for Extremism? Evidence from an Experiment with Adolescents in Burkina Faso," OSF Preprints 49na5, Center for Open Science.
    5. Bhanot, Syon P. & Crost, Benjamin & Leight, Jessica & Mvukiyehe, Eric & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2021. "Can community service grants foster social and economic integration for youth? A randomized trial in Kazakhstan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Nomikos, William George, 2021. "Peacekeeping and the Enforcement of Intergroup Cooperation: Evidence from Mali," SocArXiv 36j8q, Center for Open Science.
    7. Tilman Brück & Neil T N Ferguson & Valeria Izzi & Wolfgang Stojetz, 2021. "Can Jobs Programs Build Peace? [Intergroup Conflict and Intra-Group Punishment in an Experimental Contest Game]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 234-259.
    8. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2023. "Food Aid and Violent Conflict: A Review of Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 16574, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Vicente, Pedro C. & Vilela, Inês, 2022. "Preventing Islamic radicalization: Experimental evidence on anti-social behavior," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 474-485.
    10. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries," Working Papers 698, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

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