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The Gravity of Violence

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu Couttenier
  • Julian Marcoux
  • Thierry Mayer
  • Mathias Thoenig

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, designed for the analysis of bilateral flows, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way. A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a structural gravity equation of violence. Studying continental Africa over the period 1997 to 2023, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is simulated to quantify different policy-relevant experiments in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive. Positive and spatially-diffusing feedback loops between development and pacification are one of the main findings of our analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Couttenier & Julian Marcoux & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2025. "The Gravity of Violence," Working Papers 2025-02, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-02
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Violence; Conflicts; Trade; Development; Gravity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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