IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wboper/23801.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Africa’s Demographic Transition

Author

Listed:
  • David Canning
  • Sangeeta Raja
  • Abdo Yazbeck

Abstract

This book lays out a range of policy actions that are needed at the various phases of the demographic transition and uses global and regional experiences to provide evidence on what has worked and what has not. Countries have a menu of options available to speed up the transition, improve investment in the resulting youth cohort, expand labor markets, and encourage savings. This book not only looks at lessons from East Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, but also at unique demographic characteristics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Harnessing the demographic dividend means, first and foremost, empowering women and girls by improving their health, enhancing their human capital through increased investment in education and skills, and providing them with greater market, social, and decision-making power. The full potential of the demographic dividend can be realized in Sub-Saharan Africa with proactive policies that can help to make it happen.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • David Canning & Sangeeta Raja & Abdo Yazbeck, 2015. "Africa’s Demographic Transition," World Bank Publications - Reports 23801, The World Bank Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:23801
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/23801/Africa0s0demog0ividend0or0disaster0.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Life-Cycle Labor Supply and Fertility: Causal Inferences from Household Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 328-348, April.
    2. Cruces, Guillermo & Galiani, Sebastian, 2007. "Fertility and female labor supply in Latin America: New causal evidence," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 565-573, June.
    3. Gindling, T.H. & Newhouse, David, 2014. "Self-Employment in the Developing World," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 313-331.
    4. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    5. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    6. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2011. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of population aging in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5519, The World Bank.
    9. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2011. "The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Robert Holzmann & David A. Robalino & Noriyuki Takayama, 2009. "Closing the Coverage Gap : The Role of Social Pensions and Other Retirement Income Transfers," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2651.
    11. Richard Hinz & Robert Holzmann & David Tuesta & Noriyuki Takayama, 2013. "Matching Contributions for Pensions : A Review of International Experience," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11968.
    12. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    13. Jeannine Bailliu & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Do funded pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 692-711, December.
    14. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions," IMF Working Papers 1999/128, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Browning, Martin, 1992. "Children and Household Economic Behavior," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1434-1475, September.
    17. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
    18. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    19. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    20. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David, 1998. "Social Security and Retirement: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 158-163, May.
    21. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December.
    22. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
    23. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    24. Kokila Doshi, 1994. "Determinants Of The Saving Rate: An International Comparison," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 37-45, January.
    25. Hyunbae Chun & Jeungil Oh, 2002. "An instrumental variable estimate of the effect of fertility on the labour force participation of married women," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 631-634.
    26. Margaret Grosh & Carlo del Ninno & Emil Tesliuc & Azedine Ouerghi, 2008. "For Protection and Promotion : The Design and Implementation of Effective Safety Nets," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6582.
    27. Morne Oosthuizen, 2013. "Maximising South Africa's Demographic Dividend," Working Papers 13157, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    28. Robert Holzmann & Richard Hinz, 2005. "Old Age Income Support in the 21st century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7336.
    29. Claudia Goldin, 1994. "The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History," NBER Working Papers 4707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    31. Joyce P. Jacobsen & James Wishart Pearce III & Joshua L. Rosenbloom, 1999. "The Effects of Childbearing on Married Women's Labor Supply and Earnings: Using Twin Births as a Natural Experiment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 449-474.
    32. Wong, Rebeca & Levine, Ruth E, 1992. "The Effect of Household Structure on Women's Economic Activity and Fertility: Evidence from Recent Mothers in Urban Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 89-102, October.
    33. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
    34. O'Higgins, Niall, 2001. "Youth unemployment and employment policy: a global perspective," MPRA Paper 23698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Mr. Christian Thimann & Mrs. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati, 1997. "Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America Compared: Searching for Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1997/110, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Koskela, Erkki & Viren, Matti, 1992. "Capital market imperfections, taxation and household saving," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 77-88, February.
    37. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    38. Lundberg, Shelly & Rose, Elaina, 2000. "Parenthood and the earnings of married men and women," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(6), pages 689-710, November.
    39. Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Ethnic diversity and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 293-323, April.
    40. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    41. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Martha J. Bailey, 2006. "More Power to the Pill: The Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women's Life Cycle Labor Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(1), pages 289-320.
    43. Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2010. "How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
    44. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:2:p:215-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Kim, Jungho & Aassve, Arnstein, 2006. "Fertility and its Consequence on Family Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 2162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    47. Haque, N. U. & Pesaran, M. H. & Sharma, Sunil, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9904, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yeboah, F. Kwame & Jayne, T.S., 2016. "Africa’S Evolving Employment Structure," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 259511, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    2. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michele Gragnolati & Ole Hagen Jorgensen & Romero Rocha & Anna Fruttero, 2011. "Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2351.
    2. Ismail, Aisha & Rashid, Kashif, 2013. "Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 524-531.
    3. Kam-Ki Tang & Benjamin ShiJie Wong, "undated". "The Ageing, Longevity and Crowding Out Effects on Private and Public Savings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3409, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Damian Clarke, 2018. "Children And Their Parents: A Review Of Fertility And Causality," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 518-540, April.
    5. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2018. "Saving in the world," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 257-270.
    6. Mahesh Karra & David Canning & Joshua Wilde, 2015. "A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa," Working Papers 0315, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    7. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    8. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    9. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clarke, Damian & Walther, Selma, 2022. "Women's Careers and Family Formation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1120, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Krzysztof Karbownik & Michal Myck, 2012. "For Some Mothers More than Others: How Children Matter for Labour Market Outcomes When Both Fertility and Female Employment Are Low," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1208, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Sahoo, Pravakar & Dash, Ranjan Kumar, 2013. "Financial sector development and domestic savings in South Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 388-397.
    12. Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Miralles, Cesar, 2007. "Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 842, European Central Bank.
    13. Dietz, Simon & Neumayer, Eric & De Soysa, Indra, 2007. "Corruption, the resource curse and genuine saving," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 33-53, February.
    14. Andreas Freytag & Sebastian Voll, 2013. "Institutions and savings in developing and emerging economies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 475-509, December.
    15. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2014. "World Saving," IMF Working Papers 2014/204, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2012. "The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 128-137.
    17. Vo, Thang T. & Truong, Thiet-Ha, 2023. "Gender division of household workforce in Vietnam: Role of international trade and fertility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1696-1718.
    18. Ana Skoblar, 2024. "The puzzle of household savings in the European Union: tracing influences across time and space," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 247-282.
    19. Francesca Marchetta & David E. Sahn, 2016. "The Role of Education and Family Background in Marriage, Childbearing, and Labor Market Participation in Senegal," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(2), pages 369-403.
    20. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:23801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tal Ayalon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.